At the U.S.–China summit in May 2016, Xi Jinping stated that if the Taiwan issue was mishandled, China and the United States could fall into the Thucydides Trap. While some continue to use the original metaphor employed by the ancient Athenian historian to explain the current Taiwan issue, others point out that Xi’s underlying message was a warning to President Trump not to provoke war by interfering with China’s plan regarding Taiwan. It is critical to understand the real meaning of Taiwan’s Thucydides Trap in the context of Taiwan to avoid a possible war in the Taiwan Strait.

The original metaphor of the Thucydides Trap described the seemingly inevitable conflict between a rising Athens and a dominant Sparta, derived from the growth of Athens and Sparta’s fear. Taiwan’s Thucydides Trap involves three sides. The U.S. may block China from taking Taiwan. When Athens challenged Sparta, Sparta’s counterattack was certain; U.S. military involvement would be possible but not guaranteed. Moreover, China’s goal is not simply to replace the United States but to achieve unification with Taiwan, a process that involves a wide range of Asia-Pacific and global interests related to territorial sovereignty, global trade, and technology.

All the three sides—China, the United States, and Taiwan— are currently trapped in a vicious cycle: They seem to believe that military power can solve the ultimate conflict. China seeks unification through the enhancement of its military power; the United States relies on military power to maintain its deterrence strategy; and Taiwan emphasizes peace through strength as a core pillar of its national security strategy. However, if all three sides depend primarily on military buildups, they will escalate tensions instead of solving the potential Taiwan Strait crisis. The Thucydides Trap in this scenario is therefore not only a structural trap derived from conflicting interests, but also a trap of misperceptions and miscalculations among the three sides.

First of all, for decades, the United States has relied on strategic ambiguity and strategic deterrence to discourage both Taiwanese independence and Chinese military unification with Taiwan. The United States has believed that strategic ambiguity creates a balance: Beijing hesitates to attack Taiwan, and Taipei avoids provocation. However, ambiguity can also trigger miscalculation by leaving room for dangerous assumptions, because China might interpret the policy as a lack of U.S. resolve, believing Washington would not defend Taiwan. Taiwan could overestimate American support and neglect its own defense preparations. These........

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