Opinion – Near-Term Scenarios for US Strategy Towards Venezuela |
While the operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was a success, Washington’s strategic objective with Venezuela has not been achieved. The ”Venezuela mission accomplished” misconception by some is largely due to lack of general understanding on the concept of the three levels of war: strategic, operational and tactical. In short, the “strategic” level is the U.S. overall intent for Venezuela over a multi-year period, the “operational” are the total of many sets of military actions which occur in different increments, and “tactical” are the various ground and air procedures and minute-by-minute decisions to accomplish said operational goals. Therefore, the operational objective to capture President Maduro has been conflated with Washington’s strategic priorities writ large. So, why does the removal of Maduro not fully result in Washington’s ability to project strategic power over Venezuela?
In statecraft and military affairs, there is an underlying concept of the “center of gravity” which is the core of every government’s ability to provide its moral and/or physical strength to project power domestically and internationally. It is assessed that the “center of gravity” of Venezuela is: (1) The holistic apparatus of Maduro’s oligarchic family and allies who (2) control the means of energy production, sales, and revenue that are (3) backed by the National Bolivarian Armed Forces of Venezuela (FANB). President Maduro himself was a focal piece, but not “the” focal piece within the Venezuelan center of gravity. It follows that the Washington should understand the consequences of Operation Absolute Resolve would open pandora’s box for escalatory future pathways. Was the elimination of the Venezuelan center of gravity necessary for the implementation of Washington’s highest strategic priority? And before that can be answered, what was Washington’s highest strategic priority with Venezuela?
This analysis will forecast four future pathways for U.S. intent to Venezuela depending on Washington’s highest strategic priority. Each priority will assess an action that Washington may take based on its primary objective and judge consequences following such. Each are ranked from in descending order of probability according to the author’s judgements from English and Spanish (translated) language media.
In the first scenario, a “resource model” where Washington prioritizes Venezuela for energy........