Opinion – The Missing Factor in Iran’s Unrest is Ethnic Division |
Inflation, unemployment, currency collapse, and declining living standards have once again pushed large segments of the Iranian population into the streets. As in previous protest cycles, outside observers quickly began predicting the imminent collapse of the Islamic Republic. Others speculated that the United States or Israel might take advantage of the unrest to strike Iran again, following the brief but intense confrontation of mid-2025. That twelve-day war, although limited, revealed an important reality: Iran was not as weak as many had assumed. Tehran demonstrated its ability to launch effective missile strikes, while Israel showed its capacity for rapid and precise retaliation. The confrontation ended without escalation, but it forced both sides to reconsider the costs of a wider conflict. More importantly, it underscored a broader point: despite deep internal problems, Iran remains a resilient state with strong coercive power. Yet both dominant narratives – imminent regime collapse due to protests or externally driven political change – rest on a flawed assumption: that Iran’s society forms a single political community with shared interests, identities, and goals, which – once sufficiently pressured – would move collectively toward regime change. It does not.
Iran’s current protests are driven primarily by economic hardship, inflation, unemployment, and social restrictions, not by a shared political vision. Protesters demand relief from inflation, corruption, and repression, but they do not rally around a common alternative system of governance. This distinction matters. Economic distress can mobilize large crowds, but it does not automatically produce a cohesive political movement capable of governing a complex and ethnically divided country. What is most striking – and often overlooked – is how deeply ethnic diversity shapes Iran’s political limits.
Contrary to popular belief, Iran is not a purely Persian nation-state. Persians are not even the majority of the population. Azerbaijani Turks, Kurds, Arabs, Balochis, Turkmen, and other minorities together outnumber them. According to some unofficial estimates, even Azerbaijani Turks alone may outnumber Persians in Iran. None of these communities identify themselves as Persian, and many actively resist being framed as such. Yet much of the external discourse – especially in Western and Israeli political circles – continues to treat “Iranian” and “Persian” as interchangeable terms. This misconception is not merely academic, and it has real political........