NATO officials assured Finland and Sweden when they applied together for membership in May 2022 that their process would be the fastest in history. And, in fact, it finally has been, but nearly one year since Finland's rapid accession in April 2023 has been nerve-wracking for the Swedish government, which had hoped the duo's accession would be a tandem one like the application. But opposition from Turkey and Hungary meant Sweden had to accept that long delay before being allowed under NATO's security umbrella.
Oscar Jonsson, a researcher with the Swedish Defence University, says having declared its desire to join but being stalled by would-be allies was the "worst place" for Sweden to be stranded, even temporarily.
"If you look at just recent empirics, you can see that Russia has invaded two states that it perceived to be on the way into NATO," he told DW, referring to Georgia and Ukraine, "but zero NATO member states."
It took some 20 months to gain the approval of the Turkish parliament and another few weeks for Hungary's. Each required extra diplomacy and, as it turned out in both cases, coincidental or not fighter-jet deals.
Turkey's green light for Sweden came only after it was assured of the long-stalled acquisition of F-16s from the United States — which waited to confirm until Turkey's required documents arrived in Washington, DC. For Hungary, it was four additional JAS-Gripens from........