Following the fall of dictator Bashar Assad, there is uncertainty over the future of Russia's military bases in Syria. The naval base in Tartus and the airbase in Hmeimim are Russia's only military outposts outside the former Soviet Union and have played a key role in the Kremlin's activities in Africa and the Middle East.

Losing the military bases in Syria would be devastating for Russia's Africa Corps (former Wagner Group), which are present in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Central African Republic and in Libya, said Beverly Ochieng, a security analyst at the risk consultancy Control Risks in Senegal.

"We have seen the al-Qaeda group in Mali celebrating the events in Syria and looking at it as a potential inroad for further undermining cooperation between Russia and Mali," Ochieng told the BBC.

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Russian mercenaries have helped military regimes remain in control in Sahel countries, which now look to Moscow or Russia's Africa Corps for support.

Russia's Africa Corps has replaced the Wagner Group, which was formerly led by Yevgeny Prigozhin who died in August 2023 after a plane crash in Russia. The Kremlin denied a role in Prigozhin's death.

Military regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, all countries that were once French colonies, have in recent years forced........

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