When Prime Minister Michel Barnier unveiled his deficit-reduction plan in October, promising to bring down the public deficit from around 6% of GDP to 3% in 2029, it was seen as an attempt to steer the French economy into calmer waters.

But an imminent no-confidence vote in parliament could upend Barnier's hopes — and unleash an economic storm.

It comes after Barnier linked the vote on a part of the 2025 budget — a first step to get the deficit on track to comply with the European Union's fiscal rules — to a special constitutional vehicle, which only allows for bills to be stopped through a motion of censure.

The prime minister lacks a majority in parliament and is heading a coalition government comprising President Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance party and the conservative Republicans after snap parliamentary elections in July. Macron called those elections after his party came second in June's EU parliamentary elections, receiving less than half as many votes as the far-right National Rally.

What seemed to be Barnier's only way of getting the budget through parliament is now likely to backfire, with both left-wing and far-right parties vowing to vote the government out.

The latest crisis comes at a time when some of the economic indicators have been relatively stable. French GDP is predicted to grow by 1.1% this year while Germany's GDP is expected to shrink by 0.2%. Unemployment stands at 7.4%, which is relatively low for France. Inflation has gone........

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