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Where the heck is this recession?

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08.11.2019

Next Thursday, Germany will officially slide into recession when third-quarter growth figures for Europe's powerhouse will be released. The odds are that statisticians will announce "negative growth" to use a trending euphemism. Given that growth had dropped in the second quarter too, it would mean that Germany is in a recession, at least in technical terms.

I can already imagine the alarmists dominating public debates on the state of the economy. "We've told you all along," they will say, "we're caught in a downward spiral, and the end of the world is firmly in sight anyway."

But none of this is true.

Uncertainty wherever you look

First off, it's a technical recession only, meaning economists call it a recession because they've come up with that arbitrary definition of a recession being a recession when an economy logs negative growth in two consecutive quarters.

Secondly, most pundits agree that it won't get really bad, with the current........

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