In decline |
PAKISTAN is in decline — in serious, considerable and sharp decline — as manifested by its economic, social and human development indicators. This decline is both relative to other comparable developing countries which have now steadily and increasingly outpaced Pakistan as indicated by multiple indicators, and by what Pakistan’s own indicators used to be. In other words, the economy and related and ancillary sectors, especially in human and social development, are worse now than what they were some years or decades ago. To make matters worse, Pakistan’s recent political economy reorganisation, centralisation and consolidation will ensure that these indicators deteriorate further.
The simplest and most basic indicator which encompasses economic growth, the real GDP growth rate, has been falling consistently over the last four decades and it is improbable that this long-term decline in GDP will be significantly reversed. From highs of near and above six per cent per year, this secular decline has led to a growth rate of barely 3pc. In fact, just in the last six years, GDP growth has been negative in two of those years, minus 1.3pc in 2019-20 and again minus 0.2pc as recently as 2022-23.
It is worth adding that on average, the population in Pakistan has been growing by 2.6pc annually over the last decade, and hence in real terms Pakistanis are worse off. Importantly, in just 25 years, Pakistan will become the third most populous country. At least on one count, there is huge progress and our population multiplies; over the last many years, our population growth rate has been much higher than........