PAKISTAN has long remained on the US threat radar. However, evolving dynamics in West Asia, particularly Iran’s assertive posture, have placed the country under renewed scrutiny. America’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment [ATA] presented to the Senate Intelligence Committee last week, names Pakistan alongside China, Russia, North Korea and Iran among the states developing a range of advanced and traditional missile delivery systems, capable of carrying nuclear or conventional payloads that could potentially strike the US homeland.

The ATA categorises nations based on certain criteria, including their strategic orientation. There’s a complex profile in Pakistan’s case, which is seen to tilt towards China, signal ambiguously on Iran, support Saudi Arabia, and be increasingly inclined towards Russia in the strategic and geo-economic domains. This kind of a posture is often seen as uncertain and is hence suspicious in Washington’s strategic calculus. Even countries with long-standing security partnerships with the US are under scrutiny.

At the same time, the ATA acknowledges Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts, which were also recognised by President Donald Trump in his first address to Congress last year and by Centcom chief Gen Michael Kurilla. But CT cooperation can’t ensure broader strategic alignment; it simply opens space for dialogue and cooperation in other areas, as was reflected in Pakistan’s securing IMF support and reaching a fairly acceptable tariff arrangement with the US.

Two internal dimensions also shape such assessments. First, the ideological and political orientation of the public, and, where divergence exists, the power........

© Dawn