I HAVE waited many years, decades, to write these words and the time has finally come. Today, I feel proud to be a Pakistani. Today, my country stands out among the comity of nations as a peacemaker of historic proportions. This is, quite possibly, the single biggest day in the life of our country.

Let’s not underestimate what just happened. A madman president of the United States had just said “a whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back” on the morning of Tuesday, April 7, the day his self-imposed deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was set to expire. The words sounded ominously like a threat to use nuclear weapons, especially when coupled with Vice President J.D. Vance’s remarks that the US has “tools in our toolkit that we so far haven’t decided to use”. As the deadline neared, attentive observers shared screenshots showing heavy bombers taking off from airbases in the UK, headed for Iran, with a seven- to eight-hour flight path ahead of them. It was one of the most ominous moments in living memory.

So it is natural that when news first broke, via a tweet from the Pakistani prime minister that a ceasefire agreement had been reached, a brief flare-up of elation ensued. We waited breathlessly to hear acknowledgement and confirmation from the US and Iran, which came a few hours later. The most ruinous war of our time was ended before it could escalate into a catastrophe. And Pakistan played the lead role in bringing this about. This was no minor feat.

There were moments along the way when it seemed all was lost. Even now, the deal is not sealed and the risk of sliding back into hostilities is real. Israel is continuing to bomb Lebanon, prompting a call from their parliament’s Speaker to the Pakistani ambassador asking him to press the Israelis to halt their aggression. Iran’s acceptance of the condition to reopen the strait remains ‘conditional’ and we wait to see what these conditions are. To me, it is unlikely that Iran will agree to restore the freedom of navigation as it existed before the war. But to retain full control over the strait while remaining within the bounds of international maritime law, Iran will need the cooperation of Oman because a significant part of the Strait of Hormuz falls in Oman’s territorial waters.

The most ruinous war of our time was ended before it could escalate into a catastrophe. And Pakistan played the lead role in bringing this about.

What is clear, however, is that it was Trump who sought and pushed for a ceasefire deal because even though he could deploy bluster including threats to destroy an entire civilisation, he was also boxed in by the economic fallout that the war was creating. The real volatility was yet to hit because countries around the world had stocked up on oil inventories all through 2025 and the opening months of 2026 and all through March. As hostilities rolled on and the strait remained closed, those stocks were drawn down. Whatever hikes we saw in oil prices during this time were just the beginning of what is to come if the strait is not reopened soon.

America cannot remain shielded from high oil prices for long. It may be the last to be hit by the physical shortages that are inevitable if the closure of the strait stretches out for much longer, but its ability to withstand an economic shock is probably the lowest among developed countries. That’s not a judgement on the depth of the American economy’s resilience. It is a judgement on the ability of the American consumer to withstand even a little bit of pain. With petrol prices rising towards $5 at the pump, mortgages skyrocketing due to the blowouts on 10-year Treasury paper, the mood in America could turn dour against the president very quickly.

Perhaps it is because he was mindful of the economic storm coming his way — if the war was prolonged, the damage to oil infrastructure mounted and the closure of the strait stretched out — that Trump began suing for peace. This much is evident. It was Trump who wanted an end to the war, after having launched it under faulty assumptions. It was Trump who first presented his conditions for ending the war, having started off demanding nothing less than “unconditional surrender”. Remember that? He climbed down from that to his 15 points and finally settled for a ceasefire followed by talks to a comprehensive peace based on Iran’s 10 points. That is as close to total capitulation as possible given this was a war between a superpower and a middle power at best.

Significant challenges still remain, although a halt to the hostilities followed by face-to-face talks is a big step. For Pakistan, facing the petulance of the UAE in demanding their deposits back in the middle of the diplomacy is a big challenge because it is a massive drain on the foreign exchange reserves at a critical time. Pakistan can manage this outflow by raising some funds from a private placement on the financial markets, like Egypt and Qatar that have just raised $1 billion and $3bn respectively in the past few days. It can raise some more by support from China and Saudi Arabia, perhaps by asking for the limits on the swap arrangement and the oil facility to be raised. And the remainder can be arranged by curbing the current account deficit from the programme target, by allowing the currency to depreciate some and agreeing to raise interest rates by some. These options will weigh on the nascent growth underway so far, but in a pinch they can be utilised.

For the warring parties, resumption of normal maritime flows through the strait is critical, but Iran’s acceptance is conditional. The talks will now focus on this as a priority. Despite the challenges to come, Pakistan has pulled off a serious diplomatic caper, and can now clinch its role by seeing the talks through to a comprehensive peace.

The writer is a business and economy journalist.

khurram.husain@gmail.com

X: @khurramhusain

Published in Dawn, April 9th, 2026

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