The emerging axis |
THE post-1979 Middle Eastern regional security architecture is on the brink of collapse. Israel, on the pretext of the Oct 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas, has been targeting Iran and its allies in the region, including Hamas and Hezbollah. It has weakened Iranian leverage in the regional security order. From leadership decapitation strategies to disarmament plans, the US and Israel ensured Iran received least regional support before starting their military campaign against it.
Although after more than a week of the US-Israel joint campaign, the Iranian military, the Revolutionary Guards and political leadership continue to show remarkable resilience, the endgame remains unclear. It is safe to claim that the assassination of the top theocratic and military leadership has united the Iranian nation, but the past two years of Israel’s military campaign against Iranian proxies and US-Israel joint military campaigns in June 2025 and February 2026 have weakened the state’s influence in the region.
In fact, the recent military campaign against Iran has significantly damaged Tehran’s military, naval and ballistic missile launch capabilities. Infrastructure damage means a greater economic burden to rebuild roads, stadiums, hospitals, schools, government buildings, etc. Thus, even if the theocratic regime survives, Tehran cannot afford to patronise the ‘axis of resistance’ in the region for many years, if not decades. This is mainly because patronising the axis has proven costly, and is diverting resources away from rebuilding the war-torn country, which could provoke internal resistance.
The US and Israel have envisioned that in the absence........