PROMISES are meant to be broken. That’s why we should respond to the outcome of COP28 with a healthy dose of scepticism. The headlines will focus on the language agreed regarding the fate of fossil fuels: ‘abate’, ‘phase down’, ‘phase out’. Whatever the agreement, it is unlikely to be fettered with concrete targets or firm deadlines and will rely on fantasies of how quickly we can scale carbon capture technologies. In all scenarios, you can expect the ongoing, unapologetic use of fossil fuels.
But let’s not fully dismiss COP28 yet. In other areas, the summit has been more productive. Foremost among these is the new Declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace, which calls for “bolder collective action to build climate resilience … in highly vulnerable countries and communities, particularly those threatened or affected by fragility or conflict”.
Seven out of 10 of the most climate-vulnerable countries are also ranked as fragile states. COP28’s focus on intersections between climate and security is thus a welcome addition. The declaration enshrines a two-fold recognition: one, that climate change exacerbates security challenges; two, that state fragility and conflict impede climate adaptation and mitigation........