THE tripartite Iran-Pakistan-India Pipeline project (IPI) should have had a normal maturity, had it not suffered from a genetic defect. Physicians term it a complex disorder, which has mutations in two or more genes inherited from parents.
The IPI project could not have had a simpler geopolitical justification. Iran has proven natural gas reserves of about 1,200 trillion cubic feet, enough to last 162 years. Its needy neighbour Pakistan has natural gas reserves of only 18 tcf, enough for the next 12-15 years. India’s offshore reserves of natural gas are to its east (40.6 per cent) and to its west (23.7pc). It made sense for India to look westwards, even if it involved Pakistan as an undependable intermediary.
Economics cried out for such a project. International politics, however, proved the malevolent spirit determined to curse its future.
Initially, in 1995, Iran, Pakistan and India signed an agreement which made Iran responsible for 1,180 kilometres of the IPI pipeline, Pakistan 705 km and India 850 km. The pricing of the product had been agreed at $4.937 per MBTU, linked to an average Japanese Crude Cocktail price.
Pakistan is trapped between two options.
The logical solution to ensure continuity of supply was for all three........