‘STABILISATION’ is the favourite word of mainstream economists. The IMF loves it, and has recently hinted that Pakistan’s economy has ‘stabilised’ enough for it to dole out another three-year handout close to the $6 billion that our finance czars have been craving.
I cannot understand what has been stabilised, except if a slight dip in inflation from over 30 per cent to something like 20pc is a sign of major progress. The economy is still mired in an endemic balance-of-payments crisis, which sucks up all foreign exchange reserves to regularly pay off the interest on our $135bn external debt burden. And what is ‘stabilising’ about taking on even more debt from the IMF, Gulf emirs and other ‘friends’ via the fantastical SIFC, and an increasingly hollowed-out CPEC?
None of these basic facts about Pakistan’s political economy will be acknowledged during the upcoming budget announcement, scheduled for June 12. The largely meaningless exercise is being preceded by chaos as ministers engage in an internecine conflict and bureaucrats do their own bidding. They’ll get their act together in time for the budget performance and bandy about some numbers. But it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that nothing is about to........