Given Pakistan’s huge population, currently growing at 2.55 per cent annually, as revealed by the 7th National Population and Housing Census 2023, the country needs to boost agricultural output by at least the same rate, if not higher. Across the globe, the most common approach used to accomplish this is through intensification (enhancing crop yields and cropping intensity) and extensification (expanding cultivated area) of agriculture.

From 2001 to 2022, the cultivable land area of Pakistan has remained nearly stagnant at approximately 22-22.5 million hectares, with urbanisation eating up any progress made in developing new land. However, large-scale ongoing efforts are currently underway, under the Green Pakistan Initiative to develop 4.8m acres of barren land in Cholistan and in some other regions. Nevertheless, water remains the primary limiting factor in land expansion.

However, even if these efforts succeed — and they must — the increase in Pakistan’s total cultivable area would be 8pc which would be offset within just three years due to high population growth rate. Meanwhile, a considerable amount of fertile agricultural land is likely to be encroached upon by the housing sector in urban and rural areas. Resultantly, the net increase in agricultural land will be minimal, making it essential to focus more on improving crop yields and cropping intensity (CI).

The CI currently stands at 1.59, but any efforts to improve it in irrigated areas — impractical in rain-fed regions — will require additional irrigation water, either from surface or groundwater sources. Pakistan has limited water storage capacity, therefore the country is grappling with severe groundwater........

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