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Making sense of Covid-19 in India

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For the past several weeks, I have noticed the onslaught of figures related to the Covid-19 crisis being thrown at the public at large by the media. There are some issues in the context of these figures.

For one, it is almost impossible to make out which of the sources of these figures are correct or accurate. For another, the data by itself does not tell us much beyond startling the lay public. To get these figures to convey a story, we need a bit more effort through data analysis. Unfortunately, I do not see this kind of storytelling happening a lot. Thus, we have been bombarded with data for the number of new infections in various states and for more narrow geographical regions such as Delhi, Mumbai and Dharavi. I have not seen any trends being spotted nor have I seen commentaries on what could happen in such situations.

The Dharavi test

For what it is worth, I had predicted a few weeks ago that Dharavi shall see that the situation has begun to simmer down by the end of May. I still stand by my prediction. There is a rationale behind what I have stated about Dharavi, which depends on the analysis of the data related to the number of daily infections reported there.

Health care workers conduct an inspection in Dharavi, Mumbai. (Photo: Reuters)

This data seems to be in fairly close conformity with what the eminent Israeli scientist Isaac Ben Israel has........

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