Observers throughout the region are debating about why, despite its bombastic rhetoric, Iran and its proxies have not yet responded more than two weeks after the killings of Hezbollah's second-in-command, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut and Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The anticipation has heightened global tensions, with fears of a severe escalation of violence in the Middle East driven by the possibility of an Iranian attack and the Israeli response.
Tehran’s reluctance may signal the regime’s strategic dilemma. The combination of intense international diplomatic pressure, Israel’s firm stance on retaliation, and the potential for a cease-fire in Gaza could prompt Iran and Hezbollah to deescalate, allowing them to sidestep a regional war while maintaining credibility with their base as well as their deterrence in the region.
A report quoting a senior Iranian official suggests that Iran's planned retaliation may be scrapped if a cease-fire in Gaza is reached.
Both Iran and Hezbollah are facing a critical dilemma. Their decisions are deeply intertwined, ultimately hinging on Iran’s final decision and instructions. Iran must weigh the risks of directly retaliating against Israel for Haniyeh's assassination, considering the potential for escalating conflict and the failure of previous retaliation efforts. Iran must decide whether Hezbollah........