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One of the most reliable predictors of the pandemic shows decline in coming weeks

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23.09.2021

From early on in the pandemic, there have been two sites that have competed to offer a view of the future, offering predictions of where COVID-19 cases and deaths go over coming months. One of these, the IHME projection from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. That projection, which is not really a model in the traditional sense, has been extremely sensitive to current conditions and prone being off by a significant degree—going under when the cases are on the increase, and overshooting as cases decline. That model currently projects that the United States will still be seeing very little decline in cases, hospitalizations, or deaths right through the spring of 2022. It also projects that another 100,000 Americans will die this year of COVID-19.

The IHME numbers have gained a lot of attention over the last two years, in part because it was that site that was first waved in front of Trump to make it clear that COVID-19 posed a serious threat, and that hundreds of thousands might die. However, there is another site, the COVID Scenario Modeling Hub (CSMH), which runs a series of competing models from different organizations and universities. Taking a consensus model from that site has, in most instances, produced a much more reasonable prediction of where things are going next.

And let’s hope that’s the case now. Because the model being thrown up at the CSMH is drastically different at this point than the future projected by IHME. Taking into account both the possibility of childhood vaccinations being available sometime in the next two months, and anticipating that no “super variant” that is more contagious than delta and able to resist current vaccines appears, the modeling hub........

© Daily Kos


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