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With huge cash advantage, Democrats gain in generic ballot while Republicans flounder

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23.07.2022

The fundamentals of the 2022 midterms increasingly reveal a cycle that is departing from the historic norms most pundits have relied on as touch points for their analysis.

In particular, the generic ballot trend lines appear to be decoupling from President Joe Biden's job approvals by the day. FiveThirtyEight's generic ballot aggregate, for instance, had tightened Thursday to a mere 1-point advantage for Republicans, 44.3%-43.2%, even as Biden's approvals keep sinking, hitting 37.6%.

Check out the two screenshots back to back showing that congressional Democrats are faring better as Biden fares worse.

In even better news for Democrats, FiveThirtyEight's generic ballot likely overstates the case for Republicans. Look, for example, at the last 10 polls in the outlet’s aggregate: One of them is truly not like the others. The GOP-leaning Rasmussen Reports gives Republicans an 8-point advantage, while every other survey shows either a solid Democratic advantage or a very competitive race.

In fact, Democratic strategist and New Democratic Network President Simon Rosenberg went to the trouble of averaging the latest 17 independent polls with an A/B rating from FiveThirtyEight (while excluding partisan polls like Rasmussen) and found Democrats leading the generic ballot by 2.4 points, 44.1% D-41.7% R.

"That’s a 4-5 point shift from where the election was a month ago," writes Rosenberg.

As we have noted repeatedly, Democrats also have better candidates to work........

© Daily Kos


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