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Nothing is normal about these midterm elections. Analysts are slowly figuring that out

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Here's a line that caught my eye in a June write-up of one of the first high-quality horse race polls of a battleground state taken after the Dobbs decision Supreme Court leak.

"The results of a USA Today/Suffolk University poll conducted June 10-13 show that the news for Democrats is a lot better than they have any right to expect," The Bulwark's Brent Orrell wrote. The Pennsylvania survey showed the Democratic Senate nominee, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, leading his GOP challenger by 9 points while the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Attorney General Josh Shapiro, held a 4-point advantage over his Republican challenger.

But Orrell's point marked the beginning of a phenomenon that political analysts have been grappling with ever since: President Joe Biden's approvals have tanked, inflation has soared, and the right track/wrong track numbers are abysmal, but many Democrats are looking........

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