On a bright Sunday afternoon at the end of March, at least 2,000 people packed the Lehman Center for the Performing Arts in the Bronx to hear Bernie Sanders urge Kathy Hochul to raise taxes on the richest New Yorkers. “I would ask Governor Hochul, ‘Listen to where the people are at,’” the Vermont senator said. “The people of the city, the people of this state, the people of this country, they do not want to see our kids go hungry. They do not want people to sleep out on the street or lack health care. They want the very rich to start paying their fair share of taxes.”

Progressive and democratic-socialist politicians joined Sanders onstage. They were hoping to pressure the centrist Democratic governor, who has repeatedly said she won’t raise taxes on millionaires to close any budget deficits and is just as wary about adding any new tax burdens to corporations. The rally was an impassioned appeal effectively aimed at one person. “She is a public servant, and she owes us the decency of listening to us,” Grace Mausser, the co-chair of New York City’s DSA chapter, told the crowd.

Notably missing from the festivities was DSA’s biggest star, and maybe the biggest political star anywhere: Mayor Zohran Mamdani. It was the second “tax the rich” rally the mayor had skipped, after missing one in Albany in February. Mamdani very much supports taxing the rich — he campaigned on a 2 percent increase in income taxes on New Yorkers earning more than $1 million and wanted to nudge up the corporate rate as well. But he has taken a quieter approach to making it happen, one that will either pay dividends in a few weeks or prove to be the first major disappointment his base will have to swallow.

Rather than pressure Hochul in public, joining rallies and wielding his massive social-media platform, Mamdani has chosen to negotiate privately. The Democratic leaders of the Assembly and State Senate support his call for higher taxes to close a city budget deficit of more than $5 billion, and he’s hoping that as state budget negotiations drag on into April — the governor and lawmakers have already missed their April 1 deadline — they’ll be able to cut some kind of deal with Hochul. The government has remained resistant, arguing that rich individuals and businesses could flee the state if any new taxes are imposed. But an agreement remains possible nonetheless.

Mamdani’s general aversion to criticizing Hochul in public seems to have paid dividends. In early January, she announced the state would kick in several billion dollars to fund the beginnings of Mamdani’s universal child-care program, which was the centerpiece of his campaign agenda. Hochul is committed to seeing this Mamdani campaign promise realized; the two Democrats have appeared together at several events in the city and always seem chummy.

But if Hochul holds the line on taxes and doesn’t try to assist with other agenda items like making at least some MTA buses free — another central Mamdani campaign plank — tensions will become much more obvious. DSA and other progressive advocacy groups have accepted Mamdani’s gloves-off stance toward Hochul, but that will absolutely change if a state budget is adopted that doesn’t raise taxes and forces the city to close the deficit through municipal budget cuts. (New York City needs permission from the state government to raise income and corporate taxes and can hike only property taxes on its own.)

What could the political future look like? Yesterday Mamdani cut a social-media video blasting Julie Menin, the more conservative City Council speaker, for releasing a budget proposal he asserted would cut city services, something the City Council insists isn’t true. Menin has not joined Mamdani’s calls to tax the rich, and the two are tangling on the math of the budget. On Instagram, Mamdani’s video targeting Menin directly has nearly 80,000 likes as of Thursday evening. It marks the first time Mamdani has used his formidable platform to take aim at a fellow Democrat since he ascended to the mayoralty. Much of this was inevitable; Menin represents an Upper East Side district that largely dislikes Mamdani, and she won the speakership with a coalition that included more conservative Democrats and MAGA Republicans. This will not be the last time they clash.

The greater question is whether Mamdani will give the governor the same treatment. He has already given up some leverage: He helped short-circuit a potential primary challenge by telling Working Families Party members not to back Antonio Delgado, Hochul’s lieutenant governor, who had broken from her and was trying to run to her left. Many progressives were suspicious of Delgado, a former centrist congressman from the Hudson Valley, but some wondered whether it would’ve been worthwhile to run the race anyway. Now Hochul feels she doesn’t owe Mamdani anything else. She’s on pace to crush the underfunded Republican, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, in November. Her feeling is that she doesn’t need the left all that much. This may be true, though it’s worth remembering she struggled to beat another MAGA Republican, Lee Zeldin, four years ago, and what saved her ultimately was strong Democratic turnout in New York City.

City Council members were upset that Mamdani both went against their budget proposal and used social media to broadcast his opposition, convincing a whole host of ordinary people to side with him. It was almost Trumpian, they groused. But it’s also the reality of modern democracy. Mamdani beat Andrew Cuomo twice last year in unprecedented fashion, winning more than 1 million votes in November. He survived tens of millions of dollars in spending against him. During his first three months as mayor, he was a diplomat, exceedingly agreeable; getting him to publicly bash anyone, including Donald Trump, could be a chore. The Muslim mayor didn’t even complain when Menin hopped on the radio show of Sid Rosenberg, a conservative who has smeared Mamdani as a “jihadist” and “terrorist” and said he would cheer if 9/11 happened again. In fact, he said very little.

Both Menin and Hochul hold plenty of leverage over Mamdani, who is just 34 and occupying an office that is, for all its preeminence, still beholden to the whims of the governor. They’re well aware of this and ready to flex their political muscle. Still, the more moderate Democrats would be wise to poke the bear only so much. Hochul is not unpopular, but she’s far from beloved. Menin has never won an election beyond the boundaries of the Upper East Side. Between Instagram and TikTok, Mamdani has almost 15 million followers, and his base remains deeply devoted to him. They’re ready for a fight. What happens when the messaging apparatus that helped unravel Cuomo is aimed at someone else? Hochul and Menin may find out sooner rather than later.

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