Iran War Triggers Global Energy Emergency: Live Updates

In the aftermath of air strikes on gas fields and oil facilities around the Middle East, the global energy crisis touched off by the war in Iran has quickly gone from bad to potentially catastrophic. Here’s the latest reporting, analysis, and commentary on the chaos.

‘Their leaders are all gone’

During his White House event with the Navy’s football team earlier Friday, Trump claimed that all of Iran’s leadership has been eliminated, leaving the United States with no one to communicate with.

“Their leaders are all gone. The next set of leaders are all gone. And the next set of leaders are mostly gone. And now nobody wants to be a leader over there anymore,” the president said. “We’re having a hard time. We want to talk to them and there’s nobody to talk to. We have nobody to talk to. And you know what? We like it that way.”

Top Iran military spox float threats against U.S., Israeli officials

Iran’s top military spokesman, Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi, warned that “Iran is monitoring enemy officials, commanders, pilots and soldiers,” according to the semi-official Iranian News Agency, Mehr.He also warned “that based on information available to Iran, recreational areas, tourist destinations and leisure centers around the world would no longer be safe for them,” according to Mehr.

He also warned “that based on information available to Iran, recreational areas, tourist destinations and leisure centers around the world would no longer be safe for them,” according to Mehr.

NATO moves Iraq personnel to Europe

In a statement, NATO confirmed that it had “adjusted its posture” and relocated all personnel from its mission in Iraq out of the Middle East to to Europe. The last member of the team left on March 20.

‘We’re probably in for at least a couple more weeks of this…’

CNBC spoke to an investment strategist about what a possible escalation overseas could mean for volatile prices and markets:

“If this is an escalation involving troops on the ground, then we’re probably in for at least a couple more weeks of this sort of market of higher oil prices, high gas prices; you’re hanging on every headline about energy infrastructure in the region,” Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield said to CNBC. “Quite frankly, equity markets haven’t sold off in a way that would reflect this sort of event yet, so there could still be some some downside ahead.”

Experts say reopening the Strait will likely require U.S. ground troops

More from a report from MS NOW:

Some former military officials and maritime experts are confident that American ships, aircraft and drones alone will be enough to protect tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point and bordered by Iran to the north.Others say U.S. ground troops would need to seize control of miles of Iranian coastline and secure it until the conflict ends.“You’ll need to create a buffer zone on the ground if it’s determined that air strikes do not sufficiently decrease Iran’s ability to fire onto traffic transiting the straits,” said Retired Army Gen. James A. “Spider” Marks, a military analyst. “That’s why Marines are en route. It’s a contingency force.”

Others say U.S. ground troops would need to seize control of miles of Iranian coastline and secure it until the conflict ends.

“You’ll need to create a buffer zone on the ground if it’s determined that air strikes do not sufficiently decrease Iran’s ability to fire onto traffic transiting the straits,” said Retired Army Gen. James A. “Spider” Marks, a military analyst. “That’s why Marines are en route. It’s a contingency force.”

Supreme Leader issues statement praising Iranians for strength amidst war

The AP has more from the latest message from Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei who has yet to be seen in public since the war began:

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei praised Iranians’ steadfastness in the face of war in a written statement read on Iranian television to mark the Persian New Year, Nowruz.Khamenei said the U.S. and Israeli attacks were based on an illusion that killing Iran’s top leaders could cause the overthrow of the government. He commended Iranians for “building a nationwide defensive front” and “delivering such a bewildering blow that the enemy fell into contradictions and irrational statements.”

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei praised Iranians’ steadfastness in the face of war in a written statement read on Iranian television to mark the Persian New Year, Nowruz.

Khamenei said the U.S. and Israeli attacks were based on an illusion that killing Iran’s top leaders could cause the overthrow of the government. He commended Iranians for “building a nationwide defensive front” and “delivering such a bewildering blow that the enemy fell into contradictions and irrational statements.”

Dem congressman will now support Iran war powers resolution

Greg Landsman, a congressman from Ohio, was one of four Democrats who voted against a war powers resolution presented in the House earlier this month. “I will vote for Congressman Meeks’ War Powers Resolution if it comes to the floor.. I urge every one of my colleagues to vote Yes. The United States Armed Forces have accomplished remarkable tactical and strategic successes,” Landsman said in a statement. “It’s now time to be done.”

Trump says the U.S. is doing ‘extremely well’ in Iran

The president made the comments during a White House event where he was set to present the Commander in Chief’s Trophy to the Navy Midshipmen football team.

“I want to begin by just saying that we’re doing extremely well in Iran. The difference between them and us is they had a Navy two weeks ago. They have no Navy anymore. It’s all at the bottom of the sea. 58 ships knocked down in two days,” he said.

Trump continued, “We’re not going to let them have nuclear weapons because if they had them, they’d use them. And we’re not going to let that happen.”

Are MAGA voters sticking with Trump over Iran?

A Politico poll suggests that voters who self-identify as part of the MAGA movement overwhelmingly support President Trump’s actions in Iran compared to Republican Trump supporters who don’t affiliate themselves with the political ideology.

81 percent of self-professed MAGA voters said they support the U.S.’s recent strikes in Iran while only seven percent of that group said they opposed. As for non-MAGA Republican supporters of Trump, 61 percent said they backed the military action while 19 percent said they were against them. The poll was conducted by the London-based polling firm Public First and surveyed 3,851 U.S. adults from March 13 to March 18.

U.S. to send three warships, 2,500 Marines to Middle East

The Associated Press has the latest details:

One U.S. official confirmed Friday that the USS Boxer and two other amphibious assault ships, along with roughly 2,500 Marines of the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, have deployed from their home port of San Diego and are bound for the Middle East.

Trump calls NATO nations ‘cowards’ over Strait of Hormuz

In a new TruthSocial post:

Without the U.S.A., NATO IS A PAPER TIGER! They didn’t want to join the fight to stop a Nuclear Powered Iran. Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER! President DONALD J. TRUMP

What high oil prices could mean for the U.S. economy

The Bulwark’s Catherine Rampell looks at how volatility in oil prices could cause a cascading effect that ends in a recession:

Obviously, high fuel prices are frustrating for consumers, who see billboard advertisements on their drive to work every day reminding them how expensive gas keeps getting. But fuel prices don’t just feed into inflation; they also have enormous consequences for global economic growth.That’s because demand for fuel is pretty “inelastic,” meaning it’s hard for consumers or companies to cut back how much they buy when prices rise. People have to buy gas to commute to work or take their kids to school. Companies have to buy fuel to run their factories or keep the lights on. This means that when fuel prices rise, the buyers of fuel must grit their teeth, spend the money, and then cut back spending on other things.

That’s because demand for fuel is pretty “inelastic,” meaning it’s hard for consumers or companies to cut back how much they buy when prices rise. People have to buy gas to commute to work or take their kids to school. Companies have to buy fuel to run their factories or keep the lights on. This means that when fuel prices rise, the buyers of fuel must grit their teeth, spend the money, and then cut back spending on other things.

U.S. and Israel’s differing goals in Iran

The Washington Post reports that the ongoing conflict in Iran is exposing splinters between the United States and Israel regarding their goals for the war:

Israeli officials denied that the two countries are misaligned, saying Trump and Netanyahu talk almost every day and are pursuing a divide-and-conquer strategy based on their mutual strengths. “Israel coordinates everything with the U.S.,” an Israeli official told The Post last week.But other officials say significant cracks in the alliance began to emerge in the second week of the war as Israel’s attacks on Iran’s oil facilities unleashed clouds of toxic smoke and acid rain and the compounding economic impacts of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz began to sink in.“Israel is pursuing a scorched-earth campaign of regime change, which is not what our goal is,” said a senior U.S. administration official. “Bibi wants to wreck Iran’s economy and decimate its energy infrastructure. Trump wants to keep it intact.”

But other officials say significant cracks in the alliance began to emerge in the second week of the war as Israel’s attacks on Iran’s oil facilities unleashed clouds of toxic smoke and acid rain and the compounding economic impacts of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz began to sink in.

“Israel is pursuing a scorched-earth campaign of regime change, which is not what our goal is,” said a senior U.S. administration official. “Bibi wants to wreck Iran’s economy and decimate its energy infrastructure. Trump wants to keep it intact.”

A quick look at national gas prices

As of Friday morning, the national average for a gallon is $3.91 for regular, $4.78 for premium and $5.15 for diesel, according to AAA.

How the Basij still operates despite Israel’s attacks

The Associated Press examines how Basij, a paramilitary unit within Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, continues to exert its power despite reported attacks on its leadership and infrastructure from Israel:

Residents say security forces still have an intimidating presence in Tehran. War monitors say an intensified crackdown that began with the crushing of January’s nationwide protests continues, often targeting those who take videos of strikes or try to get around a weekslong internet blackout to contact the outside world.Israel’s campaign may aim to undermine the morale of Basijis and prompt defections or refusals to serve. It could also encourage the many Iranians who remain furious over the thousands killed in January’s crackdown. In early March, Israel’s military issued a Farsi-language message urging the mothers of Basijis to “save their children” by encouraging them put down their arms.But the Basijis are highly ideological and “the most decentralized force within an already highly decentralized system,” said Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iran’s security and foreign policy.Israel’s killing of its top commander, Gen. Gholam Reza Soleimani, early Tuesday, is unlikely to disrupt it, Azizi said. The Basij chief is chosen not for expertise but for “ideological rigidity and demonstrated loyalty to the supreme leader,” playing a more symbolic role.

Israel’s campaign may aim to undermine the morale of Basijis and prompt defections or refusals to serve. It could also encourage the many Iranians who remain furious over the thousands killed in January’s crackdown. In early March, Israel’s military issued a Farsi-language message urging the mothers of Basijis to “save their children” by encouraging them put down their arms.

But the Basijis are highly ideological and “the most decentralized force within an already highly decentralized system,” said Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iran’s security and foreign policy.

Israel’s killing of its top commander, Gen. Gholam Reza Soleimani, early Tuesday, is unlikely to disrupt it, Azizi said. The Basij chief is chosen not for expertise but for “ideological rigidity and demonstrated loyalty to the supreme leader,” playing a more symbolic role.

IEA head says the energy threat is worse than you think

The Financial Times reports:

The Iran war is the gravest energy crunch ever, the head of the International Energy Agency warned, adding that it could take six months or longer to restore oil and gas flows from the Gulf. Fatih Birol, who helped to co-ordinate Europe’s response to the energy crisis that followed Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, described the conflict as “the greatest global energy security threat in history”.He said more oil had been cut off now than during the shocks of the 1970s, and twice as much gas was now offline than the amount Europe cut off from Russia in 2022. But Birol said that politicians and markets were underestimating the scale of the disruption in the Middle East, with roughly a fifth of global oil and gas supplies stranded in the region. “People understand that this is a major challenge, but I am not sure that the depth and the consequences of the situation are well understood,” he said in an interview with the FT.

He said more oil had been cut off now than during the shocks of the 1970s, and twice as much gas was now offline than the amount Europe cut off from Russia in 2022. But Birol said that politicians and markets were underestimating the scale of the disruption in the Middle East, with roughly a fifth of global oil and gas supplies stranded in the region. “People understand that this is a major challenge, but I am not sure that the depth and the consequences of the situation are well understood,” he said in an interview with the FT.

The interconnected energy infrastructure of the Gulf

At the Stimson Center, energy strategist Umud Shokri provides an in-depth analysis of the dangers of the energy war escalation in the region after the gas field strikes:

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to all but Tehran-approved traffic, the new strikes mark a qualitative escalation. Earlier disruptions primarily affected transit, constraining exports without necessarily damaging production capacity. By contrast, missile attacks on Ras Laffan target core infrastructure itself, causing fires, physical damage, and potential long-term outages. In other words, the crisis has shifted from a logistical bottleneck to a structural supply shock, with far more severe implications for global energy stability.These developments highlight a critical reality: The Gulf’s energy system operates as an interconnected network rather than a collection of isolated assets. Shared reservoirs, cross-border pipelines, joint ventures, and chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz create systemic interdependence. Disruptions in one node rapidly propagate across the system.Once energy infrastructure becomes a target, escalation becomes inherently reciprocal. Iran possesses the capability to strike regional energy infrastructure through missiles, drones, and proxy actors. Gulf states, while better defended, rely on uninterrupted production and stable investment conditions, making them highly sensitive to sustained disruption.The conflict also extends beyond the Gulf. Israeli offshore gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly Leviathan and Tamar, represent potential targets for retaliation. Iran and its regional partners have previously signaled their willingness to target such infrastructure. Disruption to these assets would affect Israel’s domestic supply and regional export arrangements to countries such as Egypt, expanding the geographic scope of energy risk.

These developments highlight a critical reality: The Gulf’s energy system operates as an interconnected network rather than a collection of isolated assets. Shared reservoirs, cross-border pipelines, joint ventures, and chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz create systemic interdependence. Disruptions in one node rapidly propagate across the system.

Once energy infrastructure becomes a target, escalation becomes inherently reciprocal. Iran possesses the capability to strike regional energy infrastructure through missiles, drones, and proxy actors. Gulf states, while better defended, rely on uninterrupted production and stable investment conditions, making them highly sensitive to sustained disruption.

The conflict also extends beyond the Gulf. Israeli offshore gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly Leviathan and Tamar, represent potential targets for retaliation. Iran and its regional partners have previously signaled their willingness to target such infrastructure. Disruption to these assets would affect Israel’s domestic supply and regional export arrangements to countries such as Egypt, expanding the geographic scope of energy risk.

Is Dubai really over?

I spoke to Tanvi Malik, a long-standing resident of Dubai, who spoke about what the “Dubai is Over” narrative emerging due to the ongoing regional war is missing:

I find that what some western media is missing is that you don’t condemn the entire United States because of the decisions and actions of a certain politician or a certain entity at a moment in time. And I find that we often get painted not just as a country but as a region with broad strokes. So you lose the nuance of Dubai, a country that’s just a few decades old, which was deeply involved in humanitarian efforts even before it was a country, which has a very complex social makeup.In the generation before this one, most Emirati locals would speak Hindi, Urdu, Farsi, all the languages of all the people of the broader region that moved here to help build it. So there is a lot more beyond the buildings and the influencers and the story of now. That story is only really post-COVID, post-Russia/Ukraine, all the geopolitics and the socioeconomics of the region of the past several years, which have guided people here because of the stability that was built decades ago.That stability was not built by these influencers. It was built by a very different generation, and then families like mine and many others who moved here for a better opportunity than maybe what they had elsewhere. And I think the media of today can only see recency, and they’re missing that broader picture.

In the generation before this one, most Emirati locals would speak Hindi, Urdu, Farsi, all the languages of all the people of the broader region that moved here to help build it. So there is a lot more beyond the buildings and the influencers and the story of now. That story is only really post-COVID, post-Russia/Ukraine, all the geopolitics and the socioeconomics of the region of the past several years, which have guided people here because of the stability that was built decades ago.

That stability was not built by these influencers. It was built by a very different generation, and then families like mine and many others who moved here for a better opportunity than maybe what they had elsewhere. And I think the media of today can only see recency, and they’re missing that broader picture.

Read the rest of our conversation here.

Another rising day for oil prices

CNN’s John Liu reports:

Oil prices rose Friday as energy infrastructure in the Middle East was damaged and the vital Strait of Hormuz was still largely shut. Goldman Sachs even suggested that higher prices could last all the way through 2027. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 1.4% to $110.2 a barrel. WTI, the US benchmark, was up 0.3% at $95.9.“The persistence of several prior large supply shocks underscores the risk that oil prices may stay above $100 for longer in risk scenarios with lengthier disruptions and large persistent supply losses,” Goldman analysts wrote in a note Thursday.US and Brent crude have separated a bit this week after the Trump administration worked to bring some more US production online. The United States is the largest oil producer in the world, insulating the country from some – but not all – of the recent disruption from the Iran war, Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a note Friday. …US gas prices rose another 3 cents a gallon overnight to $3.91, on average, Friday, according to AAA. That’s the highest average price for a gallon of regular gas since October 13, 2022.

“The persistence of several prior large supply shocks underscores the risk that oil prices may stay above $100 for longer in risk scenarios with lengthier disruptions and large persistent supply losses,” Goldman analysts wrote in a note Thursday.

US and Brent crude have separated a bit this week after the Trump administration worked to bring some more US production online. The United States is the largest oil producer in the world, insulating the country from some – but not all – of the recent disruption from the Iran war, Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a note Friday. …

US gas prices rose another 3 cents a gallon overnight to $3.91, on average, Friday, according to AAA. That’s the highest average price for a gallon of regular gas since October 13, 2022.

More on that Goldman note:

With the strait nearly blocked for almost three weeks, Goldman Sachs expects that oil prices will likely trend higher. It warned that the Brent benchmark could exceed its all-time high, set in 2008, of around $147 per barrel, if supply disruptions lengthened. In the worst-case scenario, the bank estimated that Brent prices would be around $111 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2027 if oil supply through the strait remained very low for over two months and production stayed at 2 million barrels per day after reopening. The more favorable case, according to Goldman Sachs, comes with a gradual recovery in oil flows through the strait from April, easing the Brent price to the $70s by the fourth quarter of 2026.

The first casualty of war was not Truth Social

The wartime president is still using his superfluous X/Twitter clone a ton, as the Wall Street Journal points out:

Three weeks into the war, the commander in chief has used his favorite platform—Truth Social—to cajole allies, berate adversaries, reassure embattled Gulf states and conduct his own unique form of online diplomacy. Never before has a U.S. president, the world’s most powerful figure, telegraphed his thoughts about war planning so publicly, broadcasting his decision-making and communicating his views in real time. …Trump has posted on Truth Social nearly 90 times about Iran, Israel and other war-related topics since the start of the war on Feb. 28, a body of work that—typical of his social-media activity—includes videos, reposts of other people’s comments and his own views, some running longer than 200 words. The topic has consumed roughly a quarter of the president’s feed since the war began, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal. More than a dozen of the war-related messages went up between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. Eastern time.Trump sometimes posts directly to his account. Other times, he dictates messages that staff publish on his behalf. A small group of White House aides have access to Trump’s account, but none can post content without Trump’s approval, according to a senior administration official. Some senior aides have occasionally encouraged him against making impulsive posts to his account, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Trump has posted on Truth Social nearly 90 times about Iran, Israel and other war-related topics since the start of the war on Feb. 28, a body of work that—typical of his social-media activity—includes videos, reposts of other people’s comments and his own views, some running longer than 200 words. The topic has consumed roughly a quarter of the president’s feed since the war began, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal. More than a dozen of the war-related messages went up between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. Eastern time.

Trump sometimes posts directly to his account. Other times, he dictates messages that staff publish on his behalf. A small group of White House aides have access to Trump’s account, but none can post content without Trump’s approval, according to a senior administration official. Some senior aides have occasionally encouraged him against making impulsive posts to his account, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Iran struck a Kuwaiti oil refinery overnight

Early this morning, multiple Iranian attack drones hit Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi oil refinery, setting several areas of the refinery complex ablaze and causing a partial shutdown. pic.twitter.com/9HwqC0fHZi— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 20, 2026

Will the U.S. try to sieze Kharg Island?

Axios reports on the Trump administration’s possible plans:

The Trump administration is considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran’s Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, four sources with knowledge of the issue tell Axios. …[A]n operation to take over Kharg Island, which sits 15 miles offshore and processes 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports, could put U.S. troops more directly in the line of fire. Thus, such an operation would only be launched after the U.S. military further degrades Iran’s military capacity around the Strait of Hormuz. “We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations,” a source with knowledge of the White House thinking said. Such an operation, if approved, would also require more troops. Three different Marine units are on their way to the region. The White House and the Pentagon are considering sending even more troops soon, a U.S. official said.

The Trump administration is considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran’s Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, four sources with knowledge of the issue tell Axios. …

[A]n operation to take over Kharg Island, which sits 15 miles offshore and processes 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports, could put U.S. troops more directly in the line of fire. Thus, such an operation would only be launched after the U.S. military further degrades Iran’s military capacity around the Strait of Hormuz. “We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations,” a source with knowledge of the White House thinking said. Such an operation, if approved, would also require more troops. Three different Marine units are on their way to the region. The White House and the Pentagon are considering sending even more troops soon, a U.S. official said.

Senior administration officials also projected a matter-of-fact stance regarding the significance of sending ground troops on Iranian soil:

“He wants Hormuz open. If he has to take Kharg Island to make it happen, that’s going to happen. If he decides to have a coastal invasion, that’s going to happen. But that decision hasn’t been made,” a senior administration official told Axios.“We’ve always had boots on the ground in conflicts under every president, including Trump. I know this is a fixation in the media, and I get the politics, but the president is going to do what’s right,” a second senior official said, adding no decision had been made.

“We’ve always had boots on the ground in conflicts under every president, including Trump. I know this is a fixation in the media, and I get the politics, but the president is going to do what’s right,” a second senior official said, adding no decision had been made.

More U.S. troops are on their way

NBC News confirms that at least another 2,200 U.S. Marines are being deployed to the Middle East. The 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) has left San Diego aboard the amphibious assault ship the USS Boxer, along with at least one to two other ships. It will take weeks for them to reach the Persian Gulf.

The crisis for crews stranded in the Persian Gulf

Sal Mercogliano, who hosts the YouTube show What’s Going on With Shipping, recounts a conversation he had with one of the 20,000 seafarers stranded aboard commercial ships in the Gulf:

Just heard from a crewmember on one of the 3,200 ships stuck in the Persian Gulf. A ship called the local port authority requested permission to dock as they had run out of water. They were denied permission! Multiple ships are in the same condition, with stores, food and fuel running low. Ports are overwhelmed and security is such that they are refusing permission for ships to dock. Crews cannot get off and reliefs cannot fly in.

Multiple ships are in the same condition, with stores, food and fuel running low. Ports are overwhelmed and security is such that they are refusing permission for ships to dock. Crews cannot get off and reliefs cannot fly in.

🚨Crews at risk in the Gulf🚨Just heard from a crewmember on one of the 3,200 ships stuck in the Persian Gulf.A ship called the local port authority requested permission to dock as they had run out of water.They were denied permission!Multiple ships are in the same… pic.twitter.com/rN3c0rXmX3— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ (@mercoglianos) March 19, 2026

Gold Star father says he did not tell Hegseth to ‘finish the job’

During his Pentagon press briefing on Thursday morning, War secretary Pete Hegseth recounted meeting privately on Wednesday with family members of six U.S. servicemembers who were killed in the war. NBC News talked to one of them:

“What I heard through tears, through hugs, through strength and through unbreakable resolve was the same from family after family. They said, ‘Finish this. Honor their sacrifice. Do not waver. Do not stop until the job is done,’” Hegseth said.One of the people he met at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware was Charles Simmons. His 28-year-old son, Tech. Sgt. Tyler H. Simmons, was among the six crew members killed when their refueling plane crashed in Iraq last week. Simmons recalled his exchange differently.“I can’t speak for the other families. When he spoke to me, that was not something we talked about,” he told NBC News in an interview Thursday. Simmons said he spoke separately to Hegseth and President Donald Trump at Dover and was grateful for the warmth that both men showed him. He and Hegseth spoke mostly about Tyler, his impressive service record and the speed with which he had advanced in the military, Simmons recalled.He said he told the defense secretary, “I understand there’s a lot of peril that goes into making decisions like this, and I just certainly hope the decisions being made are necessary.” Asked if he said anything to Hegseth or Trump about the need to keep fighting the war, Simmons said, “No, I didn’t say anything along those lines.”

One of the people he met at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware was Charles Simmons. His 28-year-old son, Tech. Sgt. Tyler H. Simmons, was among the six crew members killed when their refueling plane crashed in Iraq last week. Simmons recalled his exchange differently.

“I can’t speak for the other families. When he spoke to me, that was not something we talked about,” he told NBC News in an interview Thursday. Simmons said he spoke separately to Hegseth and President Donald Trump at Dover and was grateful for the warmth that both men showed him. He and Hegseth spoke mostly about Tyler, his impressive service record and the speed with which he had advanced in the military, Simmons recalled.

He said he told the defense secretary, “I understand there’s a lot of peril that goes into making decisions like this, and I just certainly hope the decisions being made are necessary.” Asked if he said anything to Hegseth or Trump about the need to keep fighting the war, Simmons said, “No, I didn’t say anything along those lines.”

He told NBC his son wanted to become commercial airline pilot:

Simmons last spoke to his only son the day before the fatal plane crash last week. Voice breaking, he said Tyler had told him “how much he loved me.”His son hoped to become a commercial airplane pilot after eventually retiring from the military, he said.“Tyler had a magnetic personality,” he said. “Never met any strangers. He’d walk into the room, and it would be immediately illuminated.”

Simmons last spoke to his only son the day before the fatal plane crash last week. Voice breaking, he said Tyler had told him “how much he loved me.”

His son hoped to become a commercial airplane pilot after eventually retiring from the military, he said.

“Tyler had a magnetic personality,” he said. “Never met any strangers. He’d walk into the room, and it would be immediately illuminated.”

Whatever happened with the South Pars strike, Trump and Israel’s war goals are not fully aligned

Despite multiple reports indicating the U.S. was aware of Israel’s plan to bomb Iran’s massive gas field on Wednesday, Trump has denied that, and Netanyahu backed up his version of events on Thursday. Regardless, the New York Times’s David E. Sanger reports, the aftermath of the attack and Iran’s counterstrike on Qatar show how the U.S. and Israel’s war aims diverge:

European officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that it was clear to them by the military operations in the past few days that Israel believed that if it dismantled Iran’s main sources of revenue, the country’s surviving leaders would relent and surrender — what the Israelis call “state collapse.” The European view is that the result will be the opposite: Iran will escalate, using its drones and surviving missiles to destroy the vulnerable infrastructure of its neighbors, even if it amounts to a suicide mission.Israel has been targeting the Iranian leadership, and with the attack on the South Pars gas field — a vast natural gas field in the Gulf run jointly by Iran and Qatar — it was striking directly at Iran’s ability to generate revenue.In contrast, Mr. Trump has been trying to preserve Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure and keep the country from retaliating at energy facilities throughout the Gulf. With every piece of evidence that the war is escalating, the price of oil increases, and Mr. Trump’s aides are scrambling to contain the economic ripple effects, starting with oil prices.

Israel has been targeting the Iranian leadership, and with the attack on the South Pars gas field — a vast natural gas field in the Gulf run jointly by Iran and Qatar — it was striking directly at Iran’s ability to generate revenue.

In contrast, Mr. Trump has been trying to preserve Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure and keep the country from retaliating at energy facilities throughout the Gulf. With every piece of evidence that the war is escalating, the price of oil increases, and Mr. Trump’s aides are scrambling to contain the economic ripple effects, starting with oil prices.

War or not, Nowruz is near

Nowruz, the Persian new year (which is timed to Northern Hemisphere spring equinox) is tomorrow. Here are some videos of Iranians buying flowers, decorated eggs, goldfish and other items for their haft-sin tables on Thursday in Tajrish Square in Tehran:

امروز، ۲۸ اسفند، میدان #تجریش/تهران(فیلم ها را خودم گرفتم) pic.twitter.com/lF4HzptmQb— Bahman Babazadeh|بهمن بابازاده (@Bahman_Babazade) March 19, 2026

امروز، ۲۸ اسفند، میدان #تجریش/تهران(فیلم ها را خودم گرفتم) pic.twitter.com/lF4HzptmQb

The energy crisis is also a fertilizer crisis

As Bloomberg points out, the war is having an enormous impact on fertilizer production right as spring planting season arrives in the northern hemisphere:

The Gulf region has become a significant producer of nitrogen fertilizers in recent decades, and the Strait of Hormuz was handling about a third of the global trade before the war broke out. The conflict has severely disrupted exports from the region, sending prices soaring and farmers scrambling to secure enough of the products while they can.The war is also disrupting production of nitrogen fertilizers in other parts of the world as the conflict has affected supplies of their key ingredient, natural gas. This has led fertilizer manufacturers in countries such as India and Bangladesh to reduce output. There are signs that soaring gas prices are also putting European production under strain.Nitrogen fertilizers underpin roughly half of global food production by supplying plants with nutrients that support their growth. If the disruption persists, farmers are likely to cut back their fertilizer use, leading to lower crop yields. “This is not only a price shock. It could also become a production shock with a lag built in,” said Wesley Davis, an economist at Meridian Agribusiness Advisors.

The war is also disrupting production of nitrogen fertilizers in other parts of the world as the conflict has affected supplies of their key ingredient, natural gas. This has led fertilizer manufacturers in countries such as India and Bangladesh to reduce output. There are signs that soaring gas prices are also putting European production under strain.

Nitrogen fertilizers underpin roughly half of global food production by supplying plants with nutrients that support their growth. If the disruption persists, farmers are likely to cut back their fertilizer use, leading to lower crop yields. “This is not only a price shock. It could also become a production shock with a lag built in,” said Wesley Davis, an economist at Meridian Agribusiness Advisors.

American farmers are feeling the price crunch, and the Trump administration says its looking to obtain fertilizer from other sources, like Venezuela and Morocco, to help fill the gap. The crisis has also already become a midterms political football in some states.

The impact will be far worse for people in poorer nations, Ramez Naam warns on X:

1. The US, China, Europe, and other rich regions apply so much fertilizer per acre today that crop yields already show diminishing returns from fertilizer. You can cut back fertilizer application by double digit percentages and see quite small yield impacts. 2. Only maybe 10% of what Americans spend on food pays for what’s coming off the farm. Farm commodity price surges get highly diluted before they reach American pocket books. 3. Poorer nations food budgets are much closer to actual farm commodity prices. Percentage changes in crops affect poor nation residents much more directly. 4. Poor nation farmers can afford much less fertilizer already, and are at the usage levels of steep gains, where any fertilizer reduction directly impacts crop yields. They’re the ones most likely to cut back. Those poor nations are the ones to see crop yields decline and food spending soar.

2. Only maybe 10% of what Americans spend on food pays for what’s coming off the farm. Farm commodity price surges get highly diluted before they reach American pocket books.

3. Poorer nations food budgets are much closer to actual farm commodity prices. Percentage changes in crops affect poor nation residents much more directly.

4. Poor nation farmers can afford much less fertilizer already, and are at the usage levels of steep gains, where any fertilizer reduction directly impacts crop yields. They’re the ones most likely to cut back. Those poor nations are the ones to see crop yields decline and food spending soar.

Israel’s beleaguered anti-war movement

Middle East Eye’s Jared Hillel reports that the Israelis who are oppose the war are badly outnumbered by those who do. For instance, even Israeli opposition leaders share Netanyahu’s belief that Iran represents an existential threat:

On the first day of the war, leading political rival Naftali Bennett backed the army and prime minister, writing on X that, “The entire nation of Israel stands behind you until the destruction of the Iranian threat.” Opposition Leader Yair Lapid, who is often described as a centrist, has called on the army to “destroy all the oil fields and energy industry” on Kharg Island, Tehran’s main oil export hub.But it’s not only politicians who have rallied round the attacks on Iran. Israel’s media, much of which has portrayed the genocide in Gaza as an act of self-defence, has once again uncritically touted the views of the political establishment. [Haaretz columnist Gideon] Levy notes that within the mainstream, “raising doubts about the war is not legitimate, you will not hear it or see it”. …Given the rabid support from mainstream media and politicians, it’s not surprising that Israel’s public is heavily in favour of the war. According to the latest polls from the Israel Democracy Institute, 92.5 percent of Israelis support Operation Roaring Lion, the codename for this war. The picture is different among Palestinian citizens of Israel, with 65 percent voicing opposition.A large part of this support stems from the belief that Iran poses the single largest threat to Israel’s security. Ofer Shelah, former Knesset member and researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), explains that for over a decade, Israelis have come to see Iran as “the source of all evil”. Shelah argues that this perceived danger legitimises each military campaign, even if the death toll domestically continues to rise. “It’s a rationale for almost everything we do, because if we don’t do it, we will be faced with more October 7ths.”

But it’s not only politicians who have rallied round the attacks on Iran. Israel’s media, much of which has portrayed the genocide in Gaza as an act of self-defence, has once again uncritically touted the views of the political establishment. [Haaretz columnist Gideon] Levy notes that within the mainstream, “raising doubts about the war is not legitimate, you will not hear it or see it”. …

Given the rabid support from mainstream media and politicians, it’s not surprising that Israel’s public is heavily in favour of the war. According to the latest polls from the Israel Democracy Institute, 92.5 percent of Israelis support Operation Roaring Lion, the codename for this war. The picture is different among Palestinian citizens of Israel, with 65 percent voicing opposition.

A large part of this support stems from the belief that Iran poses the single largest threat to Israel’s security.

Ofer Shelah, former Knesset member and researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), explains that for over a decade, Israelis have come to see Iran as “the source of all evil”. Shelah argues that this perceived danger legitimises each military campaign, even if the death toll domestically continues to rise. “It’s a rationale for almost everything we do, because if we don’t do it, we will be faced with more October 7ths.”

How is Iran faring in the economic war?

In a new Foreign Policy column, Bourse and Bazaar founder Esfandyar Batmanghelidj tallies up the significant economic damage the war is doing to Iran and its regime, but nonetheless concludes that they can afford it:

[E]ven if the U.S. takes decisive action to eliminate Iran’s oil export capability, Iran can persist in this war. Strangling Iranian trade flows and exacerbating the trade deficit would add economic pressure, but to sustain a war of attrition Iran merely needs to keep a minimal level of economic activity, meeting the essential needs of the population while sustaining weapons production and core military capabilities.To have a decisive impact on Iran’s ability to afford the war, the U.S. would need to target industrial facilities, such as Iran’s steel furnaces, and utilities infrastructure, such as power plants. But doing so will push the conflict into a new phase—as seen in the aftermath of the South Pars strike, Iran would respond by targeting similar infrastructure in the Gulf states and Israel. In this sense, targeting the physical structures of the Iranian economy would overcome the limitations of the efforts to interfere with trade, thereby accelerating the end of the war. But even if the duration of the war is curtailed, the damage borne by the global economy could be far greater.In 2019, Trump gloated in an interview that Iran’s economy was “absolutely broken.” He warned that if Iranian officials failed to cut a deal, they would “live in a shattered economy for a long time to come.” Years later, Trump’s war may shatter the Iranian economy in ways that sanctions could not, but Iran can still make sure that the U.S. cuts itself on the shards.

To have a decisive impact on Iran’s ability to afford the war, the U.S. would need to target industrial facilities, such as Iran’s steel furnaces, and utilities infrastructure, such as power plants. But doing so will push the conflict into a new phase—as seen in the aftermath of the South Pars strike, Iran would respond by targeting similar infrastructure in the Gulf states and Israel. In this sense, targeting the physical structures of the Iranian economy would overcome the limitations of the efforts to interfere with trade, thereby accelerating the end of the war. But even if the duration of the war is curtailed, the damage borne by the global economy could be far greater.

In 2019, Trump gloated in an interview that Iran’s economy was “absolutely broken.” He warned that if Iranian officials failed to cut a deal, they would “live in a shattered economy for a long time to come.” Years later, Trump’s war may shatter the Iranian economy in ways that sanctions could not, but Iran can still make sure that the U.S. cuts itself on the shards.

Who’s winning the AI war?

AI-generated images and videos about the war are everywhere, like this fake video shared by Israel yesterday:

This video posted by the official Persian account of the Israeli government claims to show a member of the Basij paramilitary force on the streets of Tehran being targeted by a strike.But it's AI-generated. Follow this thread to find out how we can verify that it's AI. https://t.co/xADRltHO5N pic.twitter.com/deraQ0Ds6o— Shayan Sardarizadeh (@Shayan86) March 18, 2026

This morning, our own John Herrman argued that Iran is winning this part of the information war without even really trying:

It’s been called a slop war, and for millions of social-media users around the world — on platforms like TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, and X, but also in large channels on chat apps like Telegram — AI has provided some of the most memorable imagery of recent weeks. Untethered from the reality on the ground, and driven by nationalistic and partisan impulses, but also by the commercial incentives of social media, the slop war is unfolding in its own independent way and according to its own grimly whimsical logic. Inside this algorithmic seam, where nearly anything is possible and nothing is quite true, it’s Iran — the technological laggard of the conflict, with no AI industry to speak of — that seems to be benefiting the most.

Brent crude oil prices fell after a big spike, but…

Massive reversal in crude prices today, at one point down more than $15/bbl from this morning's ~$119/bbl Brent peak.But don't let the [completely understandable!] volatility fool you—crude continues to march higher every day this crisis continues. pic.twitter.com/z0FDeCkbi4— Rory Johnston (@Rory_Johnston) March 19, 2026

‘Each successive day of the Iran conflict now generates months of impact on the global economy’

Bloomberg’s Tracy Alloway writes about the war’s “massive mismatch of timelines”:

Ever since Covid, I’ve really come to appreciate two things. One is that the physical still matters. To an extent, we’re all still prisoners of geography (which is a great book, by the way) and hydrocarbons. The second, related thing is that time really matters.What we’re experiencing now with the Iran War is a massive mismatch of timelines. It takes minutes to destroy energy infrastructure, and months — if not years — to rebuild it. That became pretty clear today, after QatarEnergy’s CEO said it will take three to five years to repair the LNG export capacity damaged by Iranian missile strikes overnight (in response to an earlier Israeli bombing Iranian energy assets in the South Pars). So timeframes matter a lot right now. Each successive day of the Iran conflict now generates months of impact on the global economy. And the longer it takes the world to adapt to a new reality of reduced Gulf oil flows, the longer and deeper the pain.Speaking of which, there is still an idea out there that the US is insulated from energy shocks. There’s some truth to this, but for one thing, most Americans are not in the energy business, and so an oil shock mostly shows up in the form of higher gasoline prices. And while we do have a strategic petroleum reserve, actually releasing barrels from it takes longer than you might think. So tapping the SPR is arguably more valuable as a signal to the market than an instant relief valve for prices. And then finally, America’s oil and gas industry looks less than enthused about ramping up production, even as prices spike.

What we’re experiencing now with the Iran War is a massive mismatch of timelines. It takes minutes to destroy energy infrastructure, and months — if not years — to rebuild it. That became pretty clear today, after QatarEnergy’s CEO said it will take three to five years to repair the LNG export capacity damaged by Iranian missile strikes overnight (in response to an earlier Israeli bombing Iranian energy assets in the South Pars). So timeframes matter a lot right now. Each successive day of the Iran conflict now generates months of impact on the global economy. And the longer it takes the world to adapt to a new reality of reduced Gulf oil flows, the longer and deeper the pain.

Speaking of which, there is still an idea out there that the US is insulated from energy shocks. There’s some truth to this, but for one thing, most Americans are not in the energy business, and so an oil shock mostly shows up in the form of higher gasoline prices. And while we do have a strategic petroleum reserve, actually releasing barrels from it takes longer than you might think. So tapping the SPR is arguably more valuable as a signal to the market than an instant relief valve for prices. And then finally, America’s oil and gas industry looks less than enthused about ramping up production, even as prices spike.

Could oil prices soon mirror Dubai’s?

CNBC looks at the possibility:

Dubai crude oil prices surpassed $166 a barrel to a new record high on Thursday, according to market data provider Platts. Dated Brent and West Texas intermediate Cushing’s are trading around the $100 mark after historic runs higher.The local markets for oil are often overlooked, but are now seen as a possible precursor of what could be ahead if the conflict doesn’t end soon.Dubai and Oman current prices reflect the steep severity of the shortage in the Gulf, according to Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s head of commodities research. But that doesn’t mean the American market will be spared another sharp jump, she said.“If the Strait does not reopen, this divergence is unlikely to persist,” Kaneva said in a note to clients this week. “Brent and WTI will ultimately reprice higher as Atlantic basin inventories are drawn down and the global market is forced to clear at a materially tighter supply level.”

The local markets for oil are often overlooked, but are now seen as a possible precursor of what could be ahead if the conflict doesn’t end soon.

Dubai and Oman current prices reflect the steep severity of the shortage in the Gulf, according to Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s head of commodities research. But that doesn’t mean the American market will be spared another sharp jump, she said.

“If the Strait does not reopen, this divergence is unlikely to persist,” Kaneva said in a note to clients this week. “Brent and WTI will ultimately reprice higher as Atlantic basin inventories are drawn down and the global market is forced to clear at a materially tighter supply level.”

European allies will likely wait until the war’s end to help open Hormuz

The continent continues to resist Donald Trump’s calls to deploy warships to the strait over fears they will be attacked by Iran. While European officials are discussing a plan to help escort oil tankers and other vessels, they are unlikely to send naval assets until the conflict eases and they get a clearer sense of both a US plan and the Iranian threat.Discussions for what military support can be sent to the region are in the “very early stages,” said UK Defense Minister Al Carns, with allies currently focused on “trying to conceptualize the totality of the problem and make sure that we’ve got a clear path toward the next stage.”He warned that during conflict, escorts wouldn’t be enough to protect vessels in a situation requiring a “deeply complex” multinational range of air, maritime and strike capabilities. The warning comes a week after Carns’s boss, UK Defense Secretary John Healey, warned that Iran was likely laying mines in the strait.

Discussions for what military support can be sent to the region are in the “very early stages,” said UK Defense Minister Al Carns, with allies currently focused on “trying to conceptualize the totality of the problem and make sure that we’ve got a clear path toward the next stage.”

He warned that during conflict, escorts wouldn’t be enough to protect vessels in a situation requiring a “deeply complex” multinational range of air, maritime and strike capabilities. The warning comes a week after Carns’s boss, UK Defense Secretary John Healey, warned that Iran was likely laying mines in the strait.

Netanyahu floats exploring new oil transport routes

The Israeli prime minister also indicated an interest in figuring out alternate routes for transporting oil besides the Strait of Hormuz which has been beset by threats.

“I think that what has to be done is to have alternative routes. Instead of going through the choke points of the Hormuz straits and Bab-el-Mandeb straits in order to have the flow of oil. Just have oil pipelines, gas pipelines going west through the Arabian peninsula right up to Israel, right up to our Mediterranean ports and you’ve done away with the choke points forever,” Netanyahu said. “That is definitely possible. I see that as a real change that will follow this war, but I also see this war ending a lot faster than people think.”

Netanyahu insists he is not dead, denies Israel forced U.S. into war, and claims partial victory over Iran

In a press conference held Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hit a common theme through his English remarks: addressing what he considered to be “fake news.”

• He opened by addressing a persistent online rumor that he was dead. “First of all, I just want to say, I’m alive and you’re all witnesses,” Netanyahu said to the assembled media.

• The prime minister also provided an update on the ongoing conflict in Iran, saying that the nation is no longer able to enrich uranium or manufacture ballistic missiles.

“Despite the fake news that is, unfortunately, being spread, since the start of the war 20 days ago, we are winning and Iran is being decimated,” Netanyahu said. “Iran’s missile and drone arsenal is being massively degraded and will be destroyed. Hundreds of their launchers have been destroyed, their stockpiles of missiles are being hit hard and so are the industries that produce them.”

He continued, “What we’re destroying now are the factories that produce the components to make these missiles and ⁠to make the nuclear weapons that they’re trying to produce.”

• Before taking questions, Netanyahu also weighed in on speculation that Israel “dragged the US into a conflict with Iran.” He deemed this claim, unsurprisingly, “fake news.”

• “Does anyone really think that someone can tell President Trump what to do? Come on. President Trump always makes his decisions on what he thinks is good for America and, may I add, what is also good for future generations,” he said.

Netanyahu says Israel acted alone in South Pars strike

During a televised press conference, the Israeli PM supported Trump’s version of what happened on Wednesday, saying “Israel acted alone” in the attack on Iran’s gas field, and that Trump asked them to not strike any more energy infrastructure and so they will not.

7 percent of Americans say they support ground troops in Iran

But 65 percent believe Trump will do it anyway, per a new poll:

WASHINGTON, March 19 (Reuters) - Some 65% of Americans believe U.S. President Donald Trump will order troops into a large-scale ground war in Iran but only 7% support the idea, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Thursday.— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 19, 2026

Thune says “it remains to be seen” if $200B request could pass

As Congress awaits the Pentagon to officially request its supplemental funding request, Republican congressional leaders did not indicate whether the rumored $200 billion figure will garner approval among lawmakers.

Politico reports that House Speaker Mike Johnson said he expects the request to be “detailed and specified,” adding, “I’m sure it’s not a random number.”

Johnson continued, “So, we’ll look at that. But obviously it’s a dangerous time in the world and we have to adequately fund defense, and we have a commitment to do that.”

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said that it “remains to be seen” if the Pentagon’s request could ultimately pass in the chamber. “I think they’re going to have to show us how they want to use it,” he said, per CNN. “For sure.”

The G6 leaders are out with a strongly termed letter

first serious iran statement by core us allies, committing to “contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the strait.” very welcome. let’s see what it amounts to. https://t.co/qorUdOUywS— ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) March 19, 2026

Trump calls $200 billion Pentagon request ‘small price to pay’

According to numerous reports, the Pentagon has presented the White House with an initial budget request to fund the ongoing Iran war: a reportedly staggering $200 billion. While the Defense Department has yet to make the official ask to Congress, President Trump was asked why the request was so high for a conflict he claims will be ending soon.

“We’re asking for a lot of reasons beyond even what we’re talking about in Iran. This is a very volatile world,” Trump said Friday afternoon.

He continued, “It’s a small price to pay to make sure we stay tippy top.”

Secretary Hegseth was also asked about the figure earlier this morning and he suggested that the final amount could change. “As far as $200 billion. I think that number could move, obviously. It takes money to kill bad guys,” he said. “So, we’re going back to Congress and the folks there to make sure that we’re properly funded for what’s been done, for what we may have to do in the future, ensure that our ammunition, everything’s refilled.”

Suggest’s INSS’s Danny Citrinowicz:

A. Use force to reopen the strait, knowing full well that any strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure will trigger retaliation. This is not a limited operation. It’s escalation—potentially rapid, and potentially uncontrollable. There are no half-measures here: if Washington wants the strait open, it will have to fight for it. B. Accept reality, cut losses, and pursue a deal with Tehran over the terms of access. Politically unpalatable? Absolutely. But when global oil flows and the stability of Asian markets are at stake, strategic necessity tends to override rhetoric. What last night made unmistakably clear is this: there is no clean solution. No surgical fix. No easy win.

B. Accept reality, cut losses, and pursue a deal with Tehran over the terms of access. Politically unpalatable? Absolutely. But when global oil flows and the stability of Asian markets are at stake, strategic necessity tends to override rhetoric.

What last night made unmistakably clear is this: there is no clean solution. No surgical fix. No easy win.

A brief check on the markets

Oil prices are up while stock market indexes have dropped. In short, it’s not looking great. CNBC has a breakdown:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 351 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively. The S&P 500 traded below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May 23. The Russell 2000 index, meanwhile, fell 0.5% and was approaching correction territory with a decline of close to 10% from its 52-week high. The Dow is next in line, as it is down 9.2% from its recent high.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were trading around $95 per barrel after falling 1%. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, were little changed at roughly $107 per barrel.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were trading around $95 per barrel after falling 1%. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, were little changed at roughly $107 per barrel.

Iran claims it has shot down an F-35

Iran just released footage reportedly showing one of its air defense systems successfully hitting an American F-35. pic.twitter.com/lWxzJsw5PN— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 19, 2026

Iran just released footage reportedly showing one of its air defense systems successfully hitting an American F-35. pic.twitter.com/lWxzJsw5PN

Some pushback on the video:

Counter argument from someone significantly more familiar than me with IR sensors. https://t.co/cDi0XL2MJm— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 19, 2026

Counter argument from someone significantly more familiar than me with IR sensors. https://t.co/cDi0XL2MJm

A U.S. Air Force F-35A fighter was forced to divert from a combat mission over Iran and make an emergency landing at an undisclosed U.S. airbase in the Middle East, the Pentagon has confirmed to TWZ. At this stage, details of the incident are very scarce, but there are meanwhile unconfirmed reports, and a video, suggesting that the jet was struck by Iranian fire. The video in question, if true, indicates a system was used that we have repeatedly highlighted as a top threat to allied aircraft, including stealthy ones, operating over Iran. …As far as we know, there have been no previous confirmed incidents of U.S. aircraft having been struck by Iranian air defenses since the conflict began at the end of last month. Three U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles were lost, but these fell to Kuwaiti friendly fire in an incident that remains puzzling. At the same time, some kind of friendly-fire incident cannot be ruled out on this occasion, too. Meanwhile, a U.S. Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker that was taking part in Epic Fury crashed in Iraq, for reasons that remain unclear. As we have discussed in our previous reporting, the skies of the Middle East are far from completely safe for U.S. and Israeli air operations.

As far as we know, there have been no previous confirmed incidents of U.S. aircraft having been struck by Iranian air defenses since the conflict began at the end of last month. Three U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles were lost, but these fell to Kuwaiti friendly fire in an incident that remains puzzling. At the same time, some kind of friendly-fire incident cannot be ruled out on this occasion, too.

Meanwhile, a U.S. Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker that was taking part in Epic Fury crashed in Iraq, for reasons that remain unclear. As we have discussed in our previous reporting, the skies of the Middle East are far from completely safe for U.S. and Israeli air operations.

New wartime billboards around the UAE — where the vast majority of residents are not Emirati citizens. pic.twitter.com/1vsKBqMm5L— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) March 19, 2026

New wartime billboards around the UAE — where the vast majority of residents are not Emirati citizens. pic.twitter.com/1vsKBqMm5L

The new issue of the The Economist tackles Trump’s Iran debacle, with both a fantastic cover image:

The reckless campaign against Iran will weaken America’s president. That will make him angry. Be warned: he makes a very bad loser https://t.co/UUNQjqewMl pic.twitter.com/qYyimeEMjp— The Economist (@TheEconomist) March 19, 2026

The reckless campaign against Iran will weaken America’s president. That will make him angry. Be warned: he makes a very bad loser https://t.co/UUNQjqewMl pic.twitter.com/qYyimeEMjp

And a cover story which offers an solid overview of why “it is hard to imagine a crisis more precisely engineered to intercept the trajectory of his presidency than his ill-judged, heedless war against Iran”:

The reason is that the fight against Iran diminishes Mr Trump’s three political superpowers: his ability to impose his own reality on the world, his remorseless use of leverage and his dominion over the Republican Party. Even without Iran, the potency of these Trumpian strengths was likely to wane after the midterm elections. Wars accelerate change.

But beware a weakened Trump, too:

Mr Trump’s politics depends on the strength that comes from winning. If he seems a loser, expect him to exact retribution. A weaker president could become a more dangerous one.Mr Trump is freest to act abroad. He may abandon NATO. He may cut Ukraine loose to punish Europe. He could bully Latin America in the name of fighting crime and drugs. He may demand money for defending Japan and South Korea. He will be maximalist on tariffs. Even if he does not succeed, that will further erode America’s alliances, to the glee of China and Russia.But Mr Trump is also liable to lash out at home. He has already endorsed the idea of withholding broadcasting licences from media outlets that criticise the war. He wants the Federal Reserve to slash rates, but his war makes that less likely—expect further clashes with the central bank. He could target perceived enemies or send immigration agents to more Democratic-run cities. He could threaten to meddle in the midterms, either as theatre to rile his opponents, or because he intends to influence the results. It is hard to see how Mr Trump ends up a winner in Iran. Be warned: he makes a very bad loser.

Mr Trump’s politics depends on the strength that comes from winning. If he seems a loser, expect him to exact retribution. A weaker president could become a more dangerous one.

Mr Trump is freest to act abroad. He may abandon NATO. He may cut Ukraine loose to punish Europe. He could bully Latin America in the name of fighting crime and drugs. He may demand money for defending Japan and South Korea. He will be maximalist on tariffs. Even if he does not succeed, that will further erode America’s alliances, to the glee of China and Russia.

But Mr Trump is also liable to lash out at home. He has already endorsed the idea of withholding broadcasting licences from media outlets that criticise the war. He wants the Federal Reserve to slash rates, but his war makes that less likely—expect further clashes with the central bank. He could target perceived enemies or send immigration agents to more Democratic-run cities. He could threaten to meddle in the midterms, either as theatre to rile his opponents, or because he intends to influence the results. It is hard to see how Mr Trump ends up a winner in Iran. Be warned: he makes a very bad loser.

The won’t be a U.S. export ban on oil and gas

The Trump administration doesn’t plan to thwart U.S. oil exports as officials scramble for ways to temper energy price spikes.Rumors of restrictions have swirled in recent days, and would represent a sea change after years of expanding shipments that have made the U.S. a huge player in global markets. “Oil and gas export restrictions are not under consideration,” an administration official said Thursday via email. …It had looked like the oil market was pricing in the possibility that the U.S. would put export restrictions in place, Goldman analysts wrote in a note yesterday. That belief may have been keeping prices for U.S.-produced crude oil, or WTI, lower than the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark. But by Thursday afternoon the two benchmarks had moved closer together.

The Trump administration doesn’t plan to thwart U.S. oil exports as officials scramble for ways to temper energy price spikes.

Rumors of restrictions have swirled in recent days, and would represent a sea change after years of expanding shipments that have made the U.S. a huge player in global markets. “Oil and gas export restrictions are not under consideration,” an administration official said Thursday via email. …

It had looked like the oil market was pricing in the possibility that the U.S. would put export restrictions in place, Goldman analysts wrote in a note yesterday. That belief may have been keeping prices for U.S.-produced crude oil, or WTI, lower than the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark. But by Thursday afternoon the two benchmarks had moved closer together.

The weirdest moment of today’s White House presser

Watch Prime Minister Takaichi’s facial expressions during this whole exchange:

Trump to Japanese reporter: “Who knows better about surprise than Japan. Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor?” pic.twitter.com/iHiss50UEC— The Bulwark (@BulwarkOnline) March 19, 2026

Trump to Japanese reporter: “Who knows better about surprise than Japan. Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor?” pic.twitter.com/iHiss50UEC

Israeli officials say Trump is lying

The New York Times reports:

[T]hree Israeli officials briefed on the South Pars strike said that the United States was informed before the attack. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive diplomacy. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.“The United States knew nothing about this particular attack,” Mr. Trump wrote in a social media post late Wednesday, saying that Israel had “violently lashed out.” He added that Qatar, a U.S. ally, “was in no way, shape or form, involved with it,” nor “had any idea that it was going to happen.” …Israeli analysts said the strike on South Pars may have been intended to warn Iran to stop effectively blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a major transit route for global oil. Since Iran uses most of its natural gas domestically, the strike could have been meant to signal to the regime that Israel could do much more to disable Iran than it has so far.

“The United States knew nothing about this particular attack,” Mr. Trump wrote in a social media post late Wednesday, saying that Israel had “violently lashed out.” He added that Qatar, a U.S. ally, “was in no way, shape or form, involved with it,” nor “had any idea that it was going to happen.” …

Israeli analysts said the strike on South Pars may have been intended to warn Iran to stop effectively blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a major transit route for global oil. Since Iran uses most of its natural gas domestically, the strike could have been meant to signal to the regime that Israel could do much more to disable Iran than it has so far.

Things are getting hard for Trump to brush off

But he’s still trying to downplay how bad it is, claiming he predicted what’s happening and that it’s all part of his good and necessary plan:

Everything was going great. The economy was great. I hate to make this excursion, but we’re going to have to do it. And I actually thought the numbers would be worse. I thought that it would go up more than it did. So I wanted to put out that fire and I said, you know, if I do that, oil prices will go up, the economy will go down a little bit. I thought it would be worse, much worse. Actually, I thought there was a chance it could be much worse. It’s not bad.

Trump: Everything was going great. The economy was great. I hate to make this excursion, but we're going to have to do it. And I actually thought the numbers would be worse. I thought that it would go up more than it did. So I wanted to put out that fire and I said, you know,… pic.twitter.com/9FZTRz1xax— Acyn (@Acyn) March 19, 2026

Trump sort of denies he’ll deploy ground troops

Q: "Do you intend to potentially put U.S. troops, or more troops in the region?" President Trump: "I'm not putting troops anywhere, and if I was, I certainly wouldn't tell you." pic.twitter.com/iA5q1b4cnG— CSPAN (@cspan) March 19, 2026

Meanwhile at the pump

The average price at the most expensive 10% of US stations:gasoline $5.53/galdiesel $5.96/galThe average price at the cheapest 10% of US stations:gasoline $3.23/galdiesel $4.32/gal— Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) March 19, 2026

The average price at the most expensive 10% of US stations:gasoline $5.53/galdiesel $5.96/galThe average price at the cheapest 10% of US stations:gasoline $3.23/galdiesel $4.32/gal

Trump reasserts that he told Netanyahu not to strike energy infrastructure

Q: Did you talk to Netanyahu about attacking the oil and gas fields?TRUMP: Yeah I do. I did him, 'don't do that.' And he won't do that. pic.twitter.com/VYdPp302vr— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 19, 2026

Q: Did you talk to Netanyahu about attacking the oil and gas fields?TRUMP: Yeah I do. I did him, 'don't do that.' And he won't do that. pic.twitter.com/VYdPp302vr

‘We are now well on our way to a doomsday gas crisis scenario’

Each week Qatar’s massive LNG plant remains shut, the world loses enough energy to power Sydney’s homes for an entire year 🇶🇦 ⚠️ Ras Laffan was damaged by an Iranian attack. And the length of its restart & repair timeline will have a huge impact on the global gas market 🧵 pic.twitter.com/XW2hlVmR03— Stephen Stapczynski (@SStapczynski) March 19, 2026

Bloomberg tries to put the crisis in perspective:

Three weeks of conflict in the Middle East have upended the entire energy supply chain. With the vital Strait of Hormuz all but closed, gasoline and jet fuel prices are surging, cooking gas shortages are triggering fistfights in India and farmers are fretting about diesel and fertilizer. But with virtually no spare capacity, no strategic reserves and no easy replacements, LNG may be one of the most acute pain points in an expanding crisis.The longer this continues, the only solution is for the world to use less gas — and that’s a major setback for a fuel promoted by the industry as a reliable and affordable bridge from dirty coal to full reliance on renewable power. Without gas, power plants curtail output, fertilizer and textile factories shut. The ripple effect from a long-term shock could be even more significant than the 2022 energy crisis, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced dramatic changes in global gas flows.“We are now well on our way to a doomsday gas crisis scenario,” said Saul Kavonic, energy analyst at MST Marquee. “Even once the war ends, the disruption to LNG supply could last for months or even years — depending how long it takes to repair the damage.” …An interruption beyond one month “quickly brings a deficit,” according to Morgan Stanley. If that stretches to three months, it will be the biggest LNG outage in the industry’s half-century history.“South and Southeast Asia are going to be the immediate casualties,” said Toby Copson, a China-based portfolio manager at Davenport Energy, which trades oil and gas. If the disruption does extend for months, he added, “we see indices going parabolic again.”

The longer this continues, the only solution is for the world to use less gas — and that’s a major setback for a fuel promoted by the industry as a reliable and affordable bridge from dirty coal to full reliance on renewable power. Without gas, power plants curtail output, fertilizer and textile factories shut. The ripple effect from a long-term shock could be even more significant than the 2022 energy crisis, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced dramatic changes in global gas flows.

“We are now well on our way to a doomsday gas crisis scenario,” said Saul Kavonic, energy analyst at MST Marquee. “Even once the war ends, the disruption to LNG supply could last for months or even years — depending how long it takes to repair the damage.” …

An interruption beyond one month “quickly brings a deficit,” according to Morgan Stanley. If that stretches to three months, it will be the biggest LNG outage in the industry’s half-century history.

“South and Southeast Asia are going to be the immediate casualties,” said Toby Copson, a China-based portfolio manager at Davenport Energy, which trades oil and gas. If the disruption does extend for months, he added, “we see indices going parabolic again.”

Iran has hit an oil refinery in Israel

Iran scores a hit on Israel’s Haifa oil refinery as power outage reported in the area pic.twitter.com/gffRVoyZNd— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) March 19, 2026

Iran scores a hit on Israel’s Haifa oil refinery as power outage reported in the area pic.twitter.com/gffRVoyZNd

‘Iran emerged with the upper hand’

Some takeaways from INSS’s Danny Citrinowicz on the events of the last 24 hours, including how the conflict is morphing into a war of attrition (which may give Iran an advantage):

A. Iran emerged with the upper hand. It demonstrated once again that it will not hesitate to raise the level of escalation to defend its strategic assets — without any retreat on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz. This was entirely predictable. B. Yet another indication that this war lacks a coherent, pre-planned strategy. Once the regime did not collapse early on, it is no longer clear what the overarching strategy actually is. C. Trump was aware of the strike, but chose to look the other way once tensions escalated. This reflects an ongoing gap between Washington which may still be interested in preserving a future-facing Iran and Israel, whose approach appears aimed at systematically degrading the country’s entire infrastructure.D. The strike itself seems to have been driven by frustration: Iran is not yielding, and there is a desire to force outcomes (such as opening the Strait of Hormuz) without committing ground forces — and before external pressure brings the campaign to a halt. E. The strategic failure so far leaves Trump facing a difficult choice: escalate dramatically, potentially including boots on the ground, or move to stop the campaign now. F. At this stage, the fundamental questions remain unanswered: What is the ultimate objective? What are the exit ramps? What does success even look like?G. Instead, the conflict is drifting into a war of attrition — with no clear signs of regime collapse in Iran. Meanwhile, the president, having committed to the idea that Iran has effectively capitulated, may find it difficult to disengage while facing a visible disadvantage in the maritime arena and no resolution to the nuclear issue.

B. Yet another indication that this war lacks a coherent, pre-planned strategy. Once the regime did not collapse early on, it is no longer clear what the overarching strategy actually is.

C. Trump was aware of the strike, but chose to look the other way once tensions escalated. This reflects an ongoing gap between Washington which may still be interested in preserving a future-facing Iran and Israel, whose approach appears aimed at systematically degrading the country’s entire infrastructure.

D. The strike itself seems to have been driven by frustration: Iran is not yielding, and there is a desire to force outcomes (such as opening the Strait of Hormuz) without committing ground forces — and before external pressure brings the campaign to a halt.

E. The strategic failure so far leaves Trump facing a difficult choice: escalate dramatically, potentially including boots on the ground, or move to stop the campaign now.

F. At this stage, the fundamental questions remain unanswered: What is the ultimate objective? What are the exit ramps? What does success even look like?

G. Instead, the conflict is drifting into a war of attrition — with no clear signs of regime collapse in Iran. Meanwhile, the president, having committed to the idea that Iran has effectively capitulated, may find it difficult to disengage while facing a visible disadvantage in the maritime arena and no resolution to the nuclear issue.

Will oil industry executives be able to rein Trump in?

After Trump’s weird about face last night, it certainly seems possible:

US Vice President Vance plus other senior officials are meeting with the American oil industry today (at the API hq, rather than at the White House). It would be ironic if the US oil lobby was the one which put a brake on the White House's war campaign. I think that's likely.— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) March 19, 2026

Iran’s foreign minister: ‘ZERO restraint if our infrastructures are struck again’

Our response to Israel's attack on our infrastructure employed FRACTION of our power. The ONLY reason for restraint was respect for requested de-escalation.ZERO restraint if our infrastructures are struck again. Any end to this war must address damage to our civilian sites.— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) March 19, 2026

Things are getting complicated

Trump is weighing sending more U.S. ground troops to region, according to four sources who spoke with Reuters reporters yesterday:

President Donald Trump’s administration is considering deploying thousands of U.S. troops to reinforce its operation in the Middle East, as the U.S. military prepares for possible next steps in its campaign against Iran, said a U.S. official and three people familiar with the matter.The deployments could help provide Trump with additional options as he weighs expanding U.S. operations, with the Iran war well into its third week. Those options ‌include securing safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a mission that would be accomplished primarily through air and naval forces, the sources said. But securing the Strait could also mean deploying U.S. troops to Iran’s shoreline, said four sources, including two U.S. officials. …The Trump administration has also discussed options to send ground forces to Iran’s Kharg Island, the hub for 90% of Iran’s oil exports, the three people familiar with the matter and three U.S. officials said. One of the officials said such an operation would be very risky. Iran has the ability to reach the island with missiles and drones.

The deployments could help provide Trump with additional options as he weighs expanding U.S. operations, with the Iran war well into its third week. Those options ‌include securing safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a mission that would be accomplished primarily through air and naval forces, the sources said. But securing the Strait could also mean deploying U.S. troops to Iran’s shoreline, said four sources, including two U.S. officials. …

The Trump administration has also discussed options to send ground forces to Iran’s Kharg Island, the hub for 90% of Iran’s oil exports, the three people familiar with the matter and three U.S. officials said. One of the officials said such an operation would be very risky. Iran has the ability to reach the island with missiles and drones.

Things are getting expensive

The Pentagon wants another $200 billion for the Iran War, the Washington Post reported last night:

The Pentagon has asked the White House to approve a more than $200 billion request to Congress to fund the war in Iran, according to a senior administration official, in an enormous new ask that is almost certain to run into resistance from lawmakers opposed to the conflict.That number would far surpass the costs of the administration’s massive airstrike campaign to date and instead seek to urgently increase production of critical weaponry expended as U.S. and Israeli forces have struck thousands of targets over the past three weeks, according to three other people familiar with the matter, who confirmed that the Defense Department is seeking packages of that size.

That number would far surpass the costs of the administration’s massive airstrike campaign to date and instead seek to urgently increase production of critical weaponry expended as U.S. and Israeli forces have struck thousands of targets over the past three weeks, according to three other people familiar with the matter, who confirmed that the Defense Department is seeking packages of that size.

Things are going great

In what is obviously an attempt to calm the markets, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Fox Business on Thursday morning that “In the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that’s on the water. It’s about 140 million barrels.”

Bessent: "We unsanctioned Russian oil ... in the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that's on the water" pic.twitter.com/PmDJ9nXxEW— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 19, 2026

Bessent: "We unsanctioned Russian oil ... in the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that's on the water" pic.twitter.com/PmDJ9nXxEW

How bad was the strike on Ras Laffin?

Very bad, according to the CEO of state-owned QatarEnergy, per Reuters:

Iranian attacks have knocked ‌out 17% of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, causing an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatening supplies to Europe and Asia, QatarEnergy’s CEO told Reuters on Thursday. Saad al-Kaabi said two of Qatar’s 14 LNG trains and one of its two gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities were damaged in the unprecedented strikes. The repairs will sideline 12.8 million tons per year of LNG for three to five years, he said in an interview. State-owned QatarEnergy will have to declare force majeure on long-term contracts for up to five years for LNG supplies bound for Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China due to the two damaged trains, Kaabi said.

State-owned QatarEnergy will have to declare force majeure on long-term contracts for up to five years for LNG supplies bound for Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China due to the two damaged trains, Kaabi said.

Adds Bloomberg’s Dan Murtaugh:

The importance of the Ras Laffan facility in Qatar cannot be overstated. Before the war, it supplied about a fifth of the world’s LNG and enjoyed a reputation for reliability that allowed it to negotiate premium prices. This helped turn the small Gulf nation into the Middle East’s wealthiest economy on a per capita basis.

• Early Wednesday, Israel conducted an air strike on Iran’s South Pars natural gas field, which is part of the world’s largest gas field, which Iran shares with Qatar, and which supplies 80 percent of the natural gas used across Iran. The strike was reportedly coordinated with the U.S. Qatar immediately condemned the attack, and Iran vowed to retaliate against energy infrastructure in the Gulf and called for the evacuation of several targets.

• Overnight, Iran struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas facility.

• Hours later in a stunning post on Truth Social, President Trump blamed Israel for the attack on South Pars and denied that the U.S. was involved. While he seemed to acknowledge Iran’s retaliation may have been justified, he also threatened that the U.S. would itself annihilate South Pars if Iran conducted any more attacks on “innocent” Gulf energy infrastructure.

• On Thursday, oil and gas prices soared, Qatar confirmed that there had been extensive damage at Ras Laffin and that it would take years to repair, and, in general, what had already been a freakout about the economic damage of the war intensified into a full blown panic.

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