Black Clouds Over Iran and Global Oil Market: Live Updates

It’s Day 10 of the Iran War, and along with black clouds over Tehran and the global oil market, a new supreme leader has been named, and there’s still no end in sight for the conflict or its impact. Here’s the latest.

U.S. identifies seventh killed servicemember

Army Sergeant Benjamin Pennington, a 26 from Glendale, Kentucky, who served in 1st Battalion, 1st Space Brigade, was fatally injured during an Iranian attack on Prince Sultan Air Base, Saudi Arabia on March 1. His brigade commander called Pennington “a dedicated and experienced noncommissioned officer woh led with strength, professionalism, and sense of duty.”

The worst oil supply disruption ever?

A new analysis by Rapidan Energy says that it is, per CNBC:

The U.S. war against Iran has triggered the largest oil supply disruption in history, more than double the previous record set during the Middle East crisis of the 1950s, according to an analysis by consulting firm Rapidan Energy. About 20% of the world’s oil supply has been disrupted for nine days now as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a standstill. Crude prices have surged above $100 per barrel in response.The biggest disruption prior to the current war was during the Suez Crisis of 1956 when Britain, France and Israel invaded Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, the energy consulting firm told clients in a Sunday note. In that crisis, about 10% of the world’s oil supply at the time was disrupted.The disruption triggered by the closure of the Strait is nearly three times the size of the shock caused by the Arab oil embargo of 1973, Rapidan analysts told clients. The Arab embargo disrupted about 7% of global supplies. The big difference between the supply shock of the Iran war and past crises is the world has no spare oil capacity to address the problem, the analysts said.

The biggest disruption prior to the current war was during the Suez Crisis of 1956 when Britain, France and Israel invaded Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, the energy consulting firm told clients in a Sunday note. In that crisis, about 10% of the world’s oil supply at the time was disrupted.

The disruption triggered by the closure of the Strait is nearly three times the size of the shock caused by the Arab oil embargo of 1973, Rapidan analysts told clients. The Arab embargo disrupted about 7% of global supplies. The big difference between the supply shock of the Iran war and past crises is the world has no spare oil capacity to address the problem, the analysts said.

Macron says French warships will help guard ships in Strait of Hormuz

Speaking at a Cypriot military base on Monday, French president Emmanuel Macron announced a “purely defensive” mission involving 10 French navy vessels to help safeguard container ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz once the “hottest” part of the war is over. Macron had already sent a frigate to help defend Cyprus and Greece, and France’s aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, has moved into the Mediterranean.

Another missile shot down over Turkey

📹 Sirens were triggered at Incirlik Air Base in Türkiye 🇹🇷 due to a ballistic missile attack from Iran 🇮🇷The missile was intercepted by NATO forces after it entered Turkish airspace.pic.twitter.com/Brwq6sicL4— Aleph א (@no_itsmyturn) March 9, 2026

Debris from the intercepted Iranian missile — the second shot down by Turkey since the war began — rained down near the city of Gaziantep on Turkey’s southern border with Syria.

When darkness literally falls

As CNN reported on Sunday morning, black rain fell on Tehran following the Israel airstrikes on oil depots:

It is raining oil in Tehran this morning after major airstrikes on oil facilities in the South and West of the Iranian capital. @CNN @cnni pic.twitter.com/2FBD9EnO9p— Frederik Pleitgen (@fpleitgenCNN) March 8, 2026

It is raining oil in Tehran this morning after major airstrikes on oil facilities in the South and West of the Iranian capital. @CNN @cnni pic.twitter.com/2FBD9EnO9p

First satellite imagery, with major thanks to @planet showing ongoing fires at Shahran oil depot in NE of #Tehran, and large smoke plumes from smouldering fires at Shahr-e Fuel depot in the south, next to the Tehran Refinery, amidst concerns over health and environmental risks pic.twitter.com/wztIzZy4zo— Wim Zwijnenburg (@wammezz) March 9, 2026

Here’s some of what you may have missed:

Khamenei’s son selected as new supreme leaderAs initial reports suggested, Mojtaba Khamenei was indeed chosen by senior clerics to be the country’s new supreme leader. As the New York Times’s Farnaz Fassihi points out, this is not just a sign of continuity with the elder Khamenei’s regime, but Mojtaba was also the top choice of the Revolutionary Guard — which may mean an even more hardline bent for the regime.

A seventh U.S. servicemember has diedThe soldier succumbed to injuries they received during an Iranian attack on U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia on March 1.

Israel set a lot of Iran’s oil ablaze, reportedly irking U.S./TrumpThe most dramatic (and apocalyptic) images over the weekend were of massive infernos and black skies in Iran after Israel struck oil infrastructure across the country.

Fire at the Aqdasieh oil depot in north-east Tehran following Israeli strikes is visible from a vehicle on the nearby Artesh highway. POV: 35.792497, 51.528754Oil depot: 35.79079,51.53923Verified by: @GhonchehAzad @GeoConfirmed pic.twitter.com/fQ92ipe3vn— Shayan Sardarizadeh (@Shayan86) March 8, 2026

Axios reports that this did not go over very well with Trumpworld:

Israeli and U.S. officials said the IDF notified the U.S. military ahead of the strikes. But a U.S. official said that the U.S. military was surprised by how wide-ranging they were.”We don’t think it was a good idea,” a senior U.S. official said.An Israeli official said the U.S. message to Israel was “WTF”.The White House and the IDF didn’t comment.While the facilities that were struck are not oil production facilities, U.S. officials are concerned the footage of burning depots could spook oil markets and push energy prices even higher. “The president doesn’t like the attack. He wants to save the oil. He doesn’t want to burn it. And it reminds people of higher gas prices,” a Trump adviser told Axios.

While the facilities that were struck are not oil production facilities, U.S. officials are concerned the footage of burning depots could spook oil markets and push energy prices even higher. “The president doesn’t like the attack. He wants to save the oil. He doesn’t want to burn it. And it reminds people of higher gas prices,” a Trump adviser told Axios.

The oil market is indeed spookedThe price of a barrel of oil is now firmly over $100 and reached as high as $120 in overnight trading. It’s currently trading at around $110. Trump is still trying to downplay how a big a deal this is, writing in a late Sunday night Truth Social post that:

Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!

Trump might deploy boots on the groundThere continue to be indications that President Trump is open to the idea of sending troops to Iran. Axios has joined NBC News and Semafor in reporting hat Trump has been presented with options for eventually sending special forces to Iran, possibly as part of a joint operation with Israel, in order to secure or dilute Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium. As previously reported, Trump may not consider this “boots on the ground” (but it is).

Trump denied the U.S. bombed girls school, despite growing evidence to the contraryFootage emerged over the weekend showing a U.S. Tomahawk cruise missile striking a target in Minab on the first day of the war, further confirming that the U.S. conducted airstrikes on the city around the same time that a girls’ primary school was bombed, killing 165 children. In addition, CBS News reports that a “preliminary U.S. assessment suggests that the United States is “likely” responsible for the deadly attack but did not intentionally target the school and may have hit it in error, possibly due to the use of dated intelligence which wrongly identified the area as still part of an Iranian military installation.” Nonetheless, Trump over the weekend claimed without providing evidence that, in his opinion, Iran’s regime was responsible:

Reporter: Did the US bomb an elementary school and kill 175 people?Trump: Based on what I’ve seen, it was done by Iran. Reporter: Is that true Mr. Hegseth?Hegseth: We’re investigating.Trump: They are very inaccurate with their munitions. It was done by Iran. pic.twitter.com/L3Y1zuV27E— Acyn (@Acyn) March 7, 2026

By submitting your email, you agree to our Terms and Privacy Notice and to receive email correspondence from us.

visit website

Black Clouds Over Iran and Global Oil Market: Live Updates

© Daily Intelligencer