Almost lost in the frenzy of a close and immensely consequential 2024 presidential election is the battle for control of Congress — which will determine how much actual power the president-elect will be able to wield. For some recent context, just compare the impressive legislative accomplishments of the first two years of the Biden administration, when Democrats controlled the House and Senate, with the bitter harvest of divided government in the last two years. Democrats obviously want to flip control of the House (now narrowly controlled by Republicans) while hanging onto the Senate. Thanks to this year’s extremely pro-GOP Senate landscape, the former goal is a lot more realistic than the latter, but there could be some surprises. Here’s how the fight to control Congress looks in the last few days of the election.
Democrats currently control the Senate with 51 seats. But the retirement of Joe Manchin has virtually guaranteed Republicans a 50th seat in deep-red West Virginia. The crucial 51st seat (which wouldn’t be essential for control if Donald Trump wins and J.D. Vance wields the tie-breaking Senate vote) could come from any number of highly competitive races involving seats current held by Democrats. Most of those races have been tightening up in recent days: in Michigan, where Democratic congresswoman Ellissa Slotkin holds a narrow lead (3.9 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling averages) over former congressman Mike Rogers; and in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where incumbents Bob Casey and Tammy Baldwin are locked into close races with wealthy challengers Dave McCormick and Eric Hovde, respectively. Casey currently leads by 2.8 percent in the polling averages, and Baldwin leads by 2.1 percent.
Unfortunately for Democrats, another incumbent in a tough race is not doing so well: Montana’s Jon Tester is now routinely trailing Republican Tim Sheehy (who leads by 5.4 percent in the polling........