One of Joe Biden’s many electoral problems before he dropped out of the presidential race was his waning popularity with Latino voters. In 2020, Republicans had made surprising inroads among this large and complex group in some states, and while Democrats had reversed many of those gains in the 2022 midterms, Biden’s unpopularity threatened the fragile status quo. Then came Kamala Harris, whose entry into the race has moved the needle among many voting blocs, but Latinos in particular. To figure out why, I spoke with Carlos Odio, a co-founder of Equis Research, a data and research firm focusing on the Latino electorate that conducts well-respected polls. Before that, Odio worked at a progressive nonprofit and in the Obama White House. We discussed why Harris has turned the tide, at least for now, among Latino voters, the effect of RFK Jr.’s exit from the race, and how Democrats abandoned “Duolingo politics.”

Equis’s most recent findings showed Kamala Harris dramatically outperforming Joe Biden’s recent results among Latino voters, while still not quite matching his final 2020 numbers. This may be a basic question, but why do you think Harris is doing so well among this bloc suddenly? Is it more that Biden was just so personally unpopular, or that younger people in general across the country are breaking for her? What do you think is the dominant reason?
When you look at who Kamala Harris picked up almost immediately, it was Democratic-leaning Latinos. Almost 60% of them had voted for Biden in 2020, and the rest had not voted in 2020. It was a younger voter: 60% of those she picked up were under the age of 40. And so you’re talking about voters who simply were not happy with the choices in front of them. A third of them were double haters — they disliked both Biden and Trump. They didn’t like the choices in front of them. It felt like a Sophie’s choice.

They had been beleaguered by crisis over the previous two years, right? You come out of the pandemic, and it’s high prices, it’s school shootings, it’s wars, and it’s a border situation that’s moving into the cities. And so they weren’t happy with the status quo and didn’t feel confident that the president was the person who could lead them out of that crisis. At the same time, they had Trump, who they had major concerns about — still do — but could say, “Well, in comparison, at least I had more money in my pocket when he was president.”

There was real cross-pressure, which meant that many of them were simply on the sidelines. Others were Trump-curious. Some of them moved all the way to Trump. But when you offer option C, which is “Let’s turn the page, let’s have a new generation of leadership,” it is an outlet, right? It is an escape. And one that brings a great relief and excitement for someone who was already more inclined to vote for Democrats.

You’re talking about turning the page, but of course Kamala Harris has been Joe Biden’s vice president for three and a half years and helped preside over many of the issues that you just mentioned that were bugging Latino voters. So I’m trying to figure out if there’s any concrete policy points she’s putting out that are winning over these voters. Or is it more, for lack of a better word, vibes?
Yeah, look, it is vibes, but I don’t demean vibes. I just think that elections are less about values. The dirty secret of democracy is that voters — including swing voters, including swing Latinos — are not sitting down and considering two policy agendas, and then opting for the one that they prefer the most. The reality is that you’re thinking, Who cares more about people like me? Who, when it comes time to make decisions, has me in mind?

Which is something that Biden polled well on in 2020. But by now, he may be seen as too old to care properly.
Anytime you have a crisis, the natural instinct, especially among voters who are not especially partisan, is to punish the incumbent.

If they........

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