Wartime vs Deep Time |
CounterPunch Exclusives
CounterPunch Exclusives
Pillow lavas at Ynys Llanddwyn, Wales, March 2026. Photo: The author.
One of the advantages of the U.K. compared to the U.S. is it’s small. In the five hours it takes to go from Micanopy, Florida (where I lived for five years) to Miami, I can drive clear across England to Wales, a separate country within the U.K. There, they speak Welsh (as well as English), have their own parliament, and developed a unique culture – think poets (Dylan Thomas) and singers (Shirley Bassey). The landscape is varied, ranging from marine to grasslands to montane. Snowdonia National Park in the northwest alone contains temperate rainforests, alpine peaks, and coastal dunes. Beyond that is the island of Anglesey, Newborough Forest and Ynys Llanddwyn, site of a UNESCO “global geopark.” That’s where my wife Harriet and I headed last week, eight days after the start of the U.S. war against Iran. We wanted to clock the national pulse while at the same time diverting ourselves from war-scrolling. Keeping your hands at 10 o’clock and 2 o’clock for hours at a time is a good way to keep them off your phone. Most of all, we hoped the unique geological formations on Llanddwyn Island could help us understand the relationship between deep time (the timescale of geologic history) and war time.
Donald Trump started his war on an impulse. There was no casus belli, no geopolitical imperative, and no domestic bloodlust to be gratified. (Before the U.S. attacked, I doubt there were Americans anywhere who went to bed worried about Iran.) There was no plausible macro-economic or sectoral gain; U.S. weapons manufacturers and oil giants are getting a boost of course, but those industries’ appetites are already well slaked. No world-systems theory that can help us understand the attack. No globalist conspirators set Trump’s plan in motion. Netanyahu didn’t make him do it. Pathological narcissism predicts violence, but usually at the service of primary process emotions: fear, searching, rage, lust, panic, and play. It’s true Trump raged at Iran and Muslims for at least a generation, but what drove him to start a war now?
You might as well ask why someone tugs his earlobe or scratches his chin as ponder why Trump went to war. On a certain day, in a certain place, after conversation with somebody – or all by himself – Trump decided to attack Iran. Perhaps it was a somatic reaction to an external prompt? Or an autonomic response – a fight or flight reaction – to an unknown stimulus ? We’ll never know; Trump himself doesn’t know. The peculiar genius of modern American democracy (Demokratia –rule of the people) is that the president has the power to start a war – Armageddon if it comes down to it – all by himself.
Given that, it’s not surprising the U.S. is losing. The first week of the conflict cost the U.S. about $11 billion. The president may soon ask Congress for a supplemental appropriation of $50 billion to cover the first month or so of the war. The total, national price tag – if it lasts more than another week or two, is expected to be over $200 billion. That includes lost economic activity and higher interest payments. A major recession – triggered by the oil shock – would be incalculably more expensive. The Great Recession of 2008-10 cost the U.S. alone some $20 trillion in total lost wealth and output. Trump is burning political capital even faster than cash. His approval ratings are underwater by an average of 14%. At this rate, the Republicans will lose the House in the Fall midterm elections (assuming they are conducted), and Trump will spend the last two years of his term fending off impeachment.
Iran has also suffered billions in losses. Its investment in naval and air forces —now largely destroyed — is irrecoverable. Its nuclear program (never close to bomb development) is also shattered, and Iran’s political and military hierarchy has been decimated. Trump has attacked Iran’s civilian infrastructure and threatened to “obliterate” it. (That’s Israel’s special sauce, perfected in Gaza.) But Iran was already in bad shape before the war, gutted by decades of U.S. economic sanctions. It has less to lose from a long war than the U.S.........