CounterPunch Exclusives

CounterPunch Exclusives

Waiting for the Lead Pipe

Photo by semen zhuravlev

“I’m not absolutely certain of my facts, but I rather fancy it’s Shakespeare—or, if not, it’s some equally brainy lad—who says that it’s always just when a chappie is feeling particularly top-hole, and more than usually braced with things in general that Fate sneaks up behind him with a bit of lead piping,” wrote P. G. Wodehouse in Jeeves and the Unbidden Guest.

There seems to be a great deal of pessimism about these days. You can almost picture banks of dark cloud trailing people as they walk to the bus stop or stand motionless on the escalator down to the Tube. Somewhere along the way, expecting the worst has become a regular state of mind.

An American friend recently asked whether I thought the Russians might now expand their attacks to include NATO factories producing drones and other weapons for Ukraine. “And if so,” he asked, “what would NATO’s response be? And what do you think the American response would be?”

I hedged my bets. It would depend, I replied. Was the strike deliberate? Which country had been hit? How extensive was the damage?

“So would NATO declare war?”

“Not necessarily,” I said, as if I knew.

NATO has spent years trying to avoid direct conflict with Russia. Any response would depend on the circumstances. Washington, too, would almost certainly coordinate closely with its allies while trying to avoid escalation.

What struck me afterwards was not the exchange itself, but the interesting assumption behind it. The questions seemed to begin from the premise that the most dangerous outcome was also the most probable. That seems increasingly common.

The........

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