A Plea for Humility and Self-Awareness Prior to War With Iran |
USS Lincoln Carrier Strike Group. Photo: US Navy.
God has a special providence for fools, drunkards and the United States of America.
– Otto von Bismarck (attributed)
It is the same in all wars; the soldiers do the fighting, the journalists do the shouting, and no true patriot ever gets near a front-line trench, except on the briefest of propaganda tours. Sometimes it is a comfort to me to think that the aeroplane is altering the conditions of war. Perhaps when the next great war comes, we may see that sight unprecedented in all history, a jingo with a bullet-hole in him.
– George Orwell, Homage to Catalonia
I have a rational fear, and I say rational to distinguish myself from the war mongers and fanatical Islamophobes who see enemies and Muslims under their beds and in their closets, that the US is vulnerable not only to defeat in overseas warfare but is exposed to attack from its adversaries here at home.
Regarding defeat in war against foreign states, I’ve spoken before about the US military’s failure and underperformance in the last few years:
The US Navy had to retreat from the Red Sea not once but twice against Yemen’s Houthis. Both Biden and Trump administration officials, civilian and military, seemed to delight at the prospects of the naval campaign, invoking WWII-style battles and promising Houthi capitulation. In 2024 and again in 2025, the campaigns ended in face-saving “truces”, but the results were clear: Houthi control of the Red Sea.
US industry can’t produce munitions to keep up with wars in the Middle East and Europe, a weakness going back to the US air campaign against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria a decade ago, and one of the chief reasons for Donald Trump’s intervention in last year’s 12 day war between Israel and Iran (both the Israelis and Americans were running out of missiles to intercept Iranian missiles and drones). The inability of the US weapons industry, along with European weapons companies, to meet the needs of Ukraine is made all the more alarming as the Russians, despite the largest sanctions regime in history, not only are satisfying their armament needs, in the largest conventional war since WWII, but exporting weapons for considerable profit.
The US Navy is unable to keep enough of its 11 aircraft carrier battle groups at sea to allow President Trump to threaten both Venezuela and Iran at the same time; note the belated entry into to the Persian Gulf theater of the Abraham Lincoln battle group. The Navy-Marine Corps amphibious ready group (ARG) that would normally be in the Mediterranean, and able to transit to the Arabian Sea to support operations against Iran, is in the Caribbean. An ARG is necessary, for many things such as providing search and rescue for downed pilots, the seizure of vessels or oil platforms, serving as a floating base for commando missions, like the kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro, reinforcing ground units, or evacuating American citizens from the region. Traditionally, there is an ARG on station in the vicinity of the Persian Gulf/Arabian Sea, but that ARG seems to have only left the US west coast recently. With 175,000 Marines, nearly 300 ships and a trillion-dollar budget, you’d think the American war machine would be able to have 3 ships with 2,000 Marines and some helicopters anywhere in the world it wants, let alone the Middle East, but it can’t.
It’s very possible that the US-Israeli regime change operation that blended into and then hijacked organic and legitimate Iranian protests last month was unable to be realized due to the lack of American naval forces in the area.
IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir stated last week, after meeting with US generals in Washington, DC, that the US would carry out military strikes against Iran in 2 weeks to 2 months. That time frame may coincide with weather conditions in the region (recall both Iraq War I and II began late winter/early spring, and despite technological advancements from 35 and 23 years ago, weather does still matter) and the desire of the Trump administration to go through with at least a few rounds of negotiations with the Iranians, but it is likely the timeframe primarily has to do with getting US forces in position in the region.
Just as Donald Trump, a year ago at his first press conference with Prime Minister Netanyahu, asserted the US would take over the Gaza Strip…and will own it, which is being realized through Trump’s Board of Peace, Trump also made a firm commitment regarding Iran. At that meeting last February, I believe Trump and Netanyahu agreed to carry out regime change in Iran. A year’s worth of planning, preparations and operations went into aligning regional conditions and Iranian domestic unrest. This included:
* Last June’s 12-day war against Iran, itself a regime change attempt;
* further weakening and fracturing Lebanon with over 1,000 Israeli airstrikes, IDF occupation of parts of Southern Lebanon – essentially cleansing parts of Southern Lebanon of its population, and American political pressure meant to increase division within Lebanon;
* supporting Syria’s reformist al-Qaeda government in its consolidation of power, not the least, by the US abandoning its Kurdish allies once again (at the same time that Damascus consolidates power, Israel carries out continual bombings, occupation of parts of southern Syria and incites sectarian violence to bolster Israel’s regional dominance);
* pressuring the Iraqis to clamp down on and control the mostly Shia Popular Mobilization Units as well as manipulate Iraq-Iran relations, particularly through the American control of Iraqi oil revenue, which accounts for 90% of Iraq’s budget;
* getting the Europeans to re-introduce the draconian snap-back sanctions on Iran last fall, which were........