Since last week’s debate, plenty of smart people have argued that U.S. President Joe Biden must be replaced if former President Donald Trump is to be defeated and democracy protected. Among them are The New York Times editorial board, James Carville, David Remnick, former Obama speechwriter Jon Favreau, Biden friend Tom Friedman, pollster Nate Silver, and too many more to name. Meanwhile, a post-debate CBS News/YouGov poll shows that 72% of registered voters think Biden does not have the “mental & cognitive health to serve as president,” while only 27% think he does; 63% think Biden should not be running for president while only 37% think he should be.
Despite that, Biden’s inner circle and leading Democratic officials have been pushing back with their own version of a “big lie” that we shouldn’t believe what we saw with our own eyes, Biden just had one bad night, and he’ll be just fine. But as Times columnist Bret Stephens wrote: “The transparent problem with the president’s performance wasn’t that he debated poorly. It’s that he is suffering from serious cognitive decline, something from which there is no coming back… To those who love the president, starting with his wife, it’s time to tell him: for God’s sake, and the country’s, and his own—don’t run.”
So, if Biden is to be replaced as the Democratic nominee, how would it work legally?
If President Biden withdrew, and one or more prominent younger Democrats threw their hat in the ring, the party would undoubtedly hold a series of debates and town halls to introduce them to national voters and see who performs best under the national spotlight.
There are approximately 3,933 regular convention delegates elected in primaries and caucuses, almost all of whom are Biden delegates. In addition there are 739 “automatic” or “superdelegates” who are mostly party functionaries and elected officials for a total of approximately 4,672 delegates. The regular delegates may vote on the first ballot, and to win nomination on the first ballot a candidate must garner a majority of these or about 1,968 delegates. According to rule changes adopted after the 2016 Hillary Clinton/Bernie Sanders contest, superdelegates may not vote on the first ballot. They can only vote in the second and subsequent ballots, if no candidate wins on the first ballot. It would then take a majority of all delegates, including regular and superdelegates, or approximately 2,258 votes to win the nomination.
While regular delegates normally vote for the candidate they are “pledged” to, according to rules adopted after the 1980 primary contest between Jimmy Carter and Ted Kennedy, regular delegates are not technically required to vote for the candidate whom they are pledged to.
According to the convention rules, regular delegates being required to vote for the candidate they are pledged to is aspirational, not binding. The rules state that “all delegates to the National Convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.” Thus, if in “good conscience” one or more regular delegate no longer believes her candidate reflects the sentiments of those who elected her, she has the right under the rules to vote........