Democrats are still reeling from the shock of losing to Donald Trump for the second time in the past three elections. There’s quite a bit of finger-pointing and soul-searching taking place, with both journalists and activists writing “autopsies” to understand both the reasons for the defeat and what lessons can be learned moving forward.
I would be more supportive and less skeptical about the merits of some of these exercises were it not for two reasons. In the first place, most of these autopsies will be focused too narrowly on this election, as if the problems we are facing just emerged this year. Secondly, if past is prologue, these “studies” will most likely be read by a few, then shelved and forgotten.
In fact, any serious analysis seeking to understand what happened on November 5 must begin with the recognition that the seeds of this year’s Democratic defeat were planted decades ago and are now bearing fruit.
The problem with the Democratic consultants is that they are the same cast of characters who’ve been running and ruining politics for decades.
A few weeks ago, I wrote my own finger-pointing exercise, but now want to look more deeply into the forces that have come to shape the contours of our political landscape. Here are some of these factors:
1. Profound political, social, cultural, and economic changes in American life have left millions of voters unsettled, insecure, and angry. Unmoored, they are looking for certainty. In other similar moments in history, populations shaken by such dislocations have turned to forms of fundamentalism—finding certainty in a mythic glorious past—or to “strong leaders” who they felt understood their plight.
2. In addition to these societal changes, deep scars have been left on Americans’ psyche by dramatic transformative events. The terror attacks of 9/11 and failed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan left Americans feeling vulnerable and seeing our stature in the world diminished. Add to this the economic collapse of 2008-2009 that shattered confidence in the American dream, all-too-frequent horrific mass shootings, and traumatic impacts of Covid-19, and you have a society on edge waiting for “the other shoe to drop.
3. Given this context, political leadership’s response to the unsettled electorate is important. For their part, Republicans have had some success in exploiting and expanding the fear. From Richard Nixon’s presidency until today, a constant thread in the Republican playbook has been preying on voters’ fears and insecurities. Early targets were “Black” welfare recipients or criminals. Donald Trump has expanded the list to include immigrants, particularly Mexicans and Muslims; the “deep state;” and pretty much any group who challenges him. Trump has wielded the “fear of ‘them’” as a potent weapon to supercharge his campaign against opponents.
Democrats, on the other hand, have appeared disconnected from the challenges faced by most voters. Instead of speaking directly to their pain, Democrats talked about the programs they’ve launched, the progress they’ve made in creating jobs, saving the environment, protecting women’s healthcare choices, and advocating for a balanced approach to immigration. While all true, these discourses on policy have sounded “wonky,” making Democrats sound out of touch, dismissive, or even........