Israel Is Assassinating All the Pragmatists in Iran's Leadership |
Israel's assassination of Ali Larijani, the powerful secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council — now confirmed by Iran — carries far greater political than operational significance.
The Iranian system has demonstrated considerable resilience in replacing political and military leaders killed by the U.S. and Israel. Larijani's removal is unlikely to meaningfully impact the operational level; the system is designed to absorb blows and counterattack, as evidenced by the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
The far greater significance lies in the political sphere. With Larijani gone, a relatively moderate figure accustomed to dealing with the West — and one who wielded significant influence within the system — is eliminated. This makes any potential off-ramp or diplomatic settlement of the war vastly more difficult.
I met Ali Larijani several times between 2013 and 2018, as part of European Parliament missions to Tehran, during his tenure as speaker of the parliament. The impression he left was that of a staunch Iranian nationalist — not a hardcore Islamist, dogmatic revolutionary, or reformist. A massive map of Iran overlooked his office, which was otherwise adorned in traditional Persian style. He frequently spoke of Iran's millennia-long traditions of statehood, emphasizing the heritage of the Sassanian Empire in particular.
This was not mere rhetoric. It was designed to convey to his interlocutors a vision of Iran as a major historical reality and geopolitical player straddling the Persian Gulf, Iraq, the Middle East, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus. The message, delivered while Western powers and Iran were negotiating the nuclear agreement, was clear: Iran is ready to make a deal, but it will zealously guard what it considers its sovereign rights — such as domestic uranium enrichment and regional security interests. His discourse was notably devoid of references to Islam or the revolution, emphasizing instead Iran's identity as a civilizational state.
One particular anecdote highlights this attitude. In June 2015, a delegation from the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee visited Tehran, encouraged by then-EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini as a confidence-building mission, mere weeks before the deadline set by world powers to sign the nuclear agreement later known as the JCPOA.
A member of the delegation, Dutch liberal lawmaker Marietje Schaake, drew scrutiny from hardliners for an outfit they found too "revealing." Outlets affiliated with hard-line religious and IRGC circles lashed out at Larijani for failing to ensure respect for "Islamic values" and for not canceling the meeting over the MEP's attire.
Larijani appeared unperturbed, and the meeting proceeded without issue. However, the media storm — amplified by a New York Times correspondent in Tehran, who found "Schaake-gate" the most compelling story to cover — considerably poisoned the atmosphere. The following day, the delegation's scheduled press conference with international and Iranian media at the Espinas Hotel, agreed with the Iranian authorities, was dispersed by plainclothes security, much to the irritation of the MEPs, who were already under intense pressure from Western hawks for engaging with Tehran.
Of course, Schaake’s outfit was merely a pretext for hardliners to derail the wary, budding rapprochement between the EU and Iran—to portray it as a harbinger of debauchery and indecency that opening to the West would bring. The real target was not the Dutch MEP, but moderates like then-President Hassan Rouhani........