As far as I can tell, almost nobody in Democratic politics right now thinks that, in an ideal world, President Joe Biden would remain our nominee to take on former President Donald Trump, who was already an existential threat to democracy before the Supreme Court gave him free rein to assassinate rivals and launch political coups.
But many of the donors, operatives, and party activists I've spoken with over the last few days feel nervous about our alternatives. On Thursday night it seemed clear to them that Biden needed to do the right thing and step aside. But since then, influenced by the flood of psyops claiming Biden is the "only Democrat who can beat Donald Trump" and framing any questions about Biden's candidacy as "bedwetting," many have started to wonder whether our other options are any better.
So, let's be clear: They are better. Whether Biden passes the torch to Vice President Kamala Harris or allows his delegates to select a new nominee, we have alternatives that give us a much stronger chance of beating Trump than Biden currently has. Here's why, starting with Harris.
First, Harris does not have Biden's biggest problem, which is that vast majorities of Americans don't believe he has the mental acuity necessary for a second term. A recent CBS News/YouGov poll found that fully 72 percent of voters don't think he has the "cognitive health to serve as president." This is a stunning crisis of faith that Harris, who is already polling better than Biden in head-to-head matchups against Trump, can simply sidestep.
Donald Trump represents an existential threat to freedom in the United States and abroad. We cannot stick with someone who is demonstrably one of our worst possible options to beat him in November.
Second, we were already losing before the debate. Biden has been consistently polling behind Trump this entire campaign cycle, and Nate Silver was giving Trump a two-thirds probability of winning prior to Thursday. To make up that kind of ground, a campaign needs to aggressively deliver its message across every possible medium—podcasts, daytime and late-night talk shows, videos with popular YouTubers, everywhere. That's not possible for Biden, whose team has been keeping him from doing live, unscripted interviews for years. Harris may not be a perfect communicator, but she can unquestionably prosecute the case for her candidacy across a wide range of forums in a way Biden can't. That's a huge advantage.
Third, the painful truth is that the meltdown we all witnessed on Thursday was almost certainly not a one-off event. Biden's communicative challenges will continue—that's how age works. With him at the top of the ticket, the entire Democratic Party will be forced to deal with a steady stream of slip ups and, potentially, major disasters that could even eclipse the debate. Each of these will not only push the presidency farther out of reach, but also drag down every other down-ballot Democrat, many of whom are already starting to distance themselves from Biden and calling on him to step aside. To say that Harris represents more of a gamble than that is, frankly, insulting to her.
Fourth, Biden's poor polling has persisted despite the hundreds of millions of dollars the campaign and its affiliated groups have already invested to prop him up. Harris, by contrast, has spent four years with almost no infrastructure focused on making her look good. It's very likely that Harris' standing will improve following an advertising blitz highlighting her positive qualities. Biden doesn't have this upside.
Fifth, a new Democratic ticket wouldn't just have Harris on it. We're talking about Harris/Whitmer,........