When leaders lose control of events, they rarely recover it. The final blow is usually banal. It could be a ministerial resignation, a bacon sandwich style gaffe, or a symbolic vote defeat, but it is coming, says Helen Thomas

A curious myth has taken hold at Westminster that Keir Starmer remains in post because removing a Labour leader in government is simply too hard. It isn’t. The Labour Party rulebook was amended last year (ironically under Starmer) such that a leadership challenge can now happen at any time, not just at party conference, and the practical barriers are lower than many assume.

Securing the backing of 20 per cent of MPs to trigger a contest would not be difficult. The deputy leadership race that took place last autumn saw more than 300 Labour MPs publicly declare support for one candidate or another within days. Once a vacancy appears, battle lines are drawn quickly.

The deputy leadership campaign also means that the party has had a useful dry run. The NEC has run a full contest which, similar to prior races, concluded in six to seven weeks. In government, the pressure to move fast would be even greater and the result might be known even sooner.

So the question is not whether Labour can change its leader. It is whether it can afford not to.

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