Five predictions for politics in 2026 |
At the beginning of 2025 I gave caution the slip and made five predictions for the year in politics. One was wrong: I anticipated Liberal Democrat Mike Ross would be elected Mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire, but he lost to Reform UK’s Luke Campbell by 11,000 votes.
The remaining four I claim as wins. I guessed a Reform MP would leave the party (James McMurdock quit in July); that Dame Andrea Jenkyns would be elected Mayor of Greater Lincolnshire (she won a majority of 39,500); that the opposition would force the resignation of a Cabinet minister (Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner walked in September); and that the government would lose a by-election it expected to win (Reform’s Sarah Pochin overturned a Labour majority of 15,000 in Runcorn and Helsby).
I cannot claim Minority Report-style precognition. But I have watched politics for a long time, and spent more than a decade working in parliament, an immersive experience. Moreover, people are people, even MPs, often conforming to archetypes. So here are five new hostages to fortune for 2026.
Morgan McSweeney will not last the year as Downing Street Chief of Staff
The Corkman has attracted criticism from the moment he succeeded Sue Gray in October 2024, but the Prime Minister relies on him. There comes a point,........