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Scott Morrison meets the ghost of Richard Nixon

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29.04.2020

Scott Morrison's star continues to rise, with a great big 68 per cent satisfaction rating in the latest Newspoll. As better Prime Minister he doubles opposition leader Anthony Albanese, 56 to 28. And these are on top of leaps in approval several weeks ago.

Cometh the hour, cometh the leader, and all that.

But voting intentions, by contrast, are decidedly sub-stratospheric: the government is on 41 per cent, Labor on 36 and the Greens 12, and the estimated two-party-preferred is 50-50.

And elections are funny things: votes, not personal ratings, decide who forms government.

There's a general assumption among politics-watchers that high approval ratings bode well for elections, and that party support will follow when push comes to shove.

The last federal election provided mild evidence for that, with Morrison always easily ahead of Bill Shorten on personal measures, and then that last-minute miracle.

But election 2019 was an outlier on several fronts (including opinion poll fails for possibly six months, or even longer).

The usual dynamic is the opposite: when a party leader is miles ahead of an opponent, it seems to artificially inflate his or........

© Canberra Times


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