Amid all the drama in the deposing of Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan - her early defiance, the acceptance of the inevitable, the resignation speech and the shouty caucus meeting shortly after - what stood out for me didn't happen yesterday.

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Rather, it was the declaration of loyalty uttered at a media conference six weeks beforehand by Ben Carroll, the man who would topple her. He said he could look her in the eye and vow not to mount a challenge to her leadership. Worse, he invoked his daughter.

"I've got a young daughter at home, and I couldn't be more proud to make sure she grows up knowing that I supported Jacinta Allan to be a world-class premier and get re-elected in her own right," he said.

I don't live in Victoria so paid little attention at the time. I was aware of plunging poll numbers and the bad smell emanating from the state's Big Build projects - cost blowouts and corruption allegations. But when Carroll's declaration of fealty re-emerged as he declared his intention to challenge, I was reminded of a golden rule of politics.

When your colleagues begin professing loyalty, feel the need to declare it, the writing is likely already on all the wall. It was only eight years ago when then Treasurer Scott Morrison, asked if he had leadership ambitions, threw his arms around Malcolm Turnbull and declared: "This is my leader. And I'm ambitious for him." Days later, Morrison became PM after a messy contest between Peter Dutton and Turnbull.

Turnbull himself had earlier played a similar game. In February 2015 he stated that then PM Tony Abbott had "utter loyalty and consistency" from his front bench. In September the same year, Turnbull rolled Abbott in a leadership spill.

Even when politicians explicitly rule out challenging, as Kevin Rudd did before deposing Julia Gillard, who had not long beforehand deposed him, more than a grain of salt should be taken.

Shortly after Paul Keating unsuccessfully challenged Bob Hawke in June 1991, Hawke told ABC radio: "Paul accepted the decision graciously, congratulated me........

© Canberra Times