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We foresaw the oil shock, so why didn't Trump?

18 0
24.03.2026

You can't legislate against stupidity. There will always be people whose reckless, irrational actions harm others. We're reminded of this every time we go to fill up at the service station, dumbfounded as the price per litre for fuel rises so fast it will soon go into low orbit.

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I'm not talking about the people who rushed to buy fuel at the outset of this war, the panic buyers. Their actions were selfish but entirely rational. No, I'm talking about the US president whose irrational actions have painted himself into a corner and imperilled the entire global economy.

The scale of the disaster was spelled out at the National Press Club by Dr Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency. He said this energy crisis, brought on by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, already eclipses those of the 1970s, which ushered in a period of stagflation - economic stagnation coupled with inflation.

The amount of oil already lost in this four week old crisis already equals what was lost during the 1970s oil shocks. And there's no end in sight.

So how did we get here?

Short answer: the US decided to join forces with Israel in an ill-considered military campaign with no apparent exit strategy. Australian motorists sensed there'd be fuel shortages a day or two after the war began. But Donald Trump at first seemed surprised, then indignant, and now furious that Iran played its (excuse the pun) trump card and closed the Strait of Hormuz over which it shares sovereignty with Oman.

It's said war is God's way of teaching Americans geography, a lesson Trump should have learned before he set out on this destructive excursion. Some 20 per cent of the world's oil and its related products have to traverse the narrow Strait of Hormuz, which at one point is only two nautical miles wide.

Any rational person would have sought advice about the risks from the experts around them. Not Donald Trump. According to his White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, he decided to act on a "feeling". His counter terrorism chief Joe Kent alleged Trump was pressured into the decision to go to war by America's powerful Israel lobby and resigned. He said there was no robust debate about whether or not this was a wise move.

Former military lawyer, now professor at Texas Tech University, said of America's Iran campaign: "It certainly has the feeling of ready, fire, aim."

It would be funny if we weren't all paying the price. You, me and the small businesses that knit our communities together. One doesn't have to look far to sense the anger at decisions made on the other side of the world by a man apparently unmoored from common sense and unable to foresee the bleeding obvious. A man who wears his stupidity on his sleeve.

US military blogger and emeritus senior fellow at the Institute of Modern Warfare at West Point Steve Leonard wrote a piece about criminal stupidity in 2023. One of the telltale signs of stupidity in leadership, he wrote, is a sense of omnipotence: "When a leader starts to believe they are 'invincible, untouchable and hyper-capable' bad things are going to happen."

When people are reluctant to say no it's only a matter of time before a hare brained idea becomes a terrible reality. We're paying for that reality now.

HAVE YOUR SAY: How much damage will Donald Trump's actions inflict on the world economy? Do you think this war will be over soon? Or will it drag on? Are you angry about the effect the war is having on your household budget? Email us: echidna@theechidna.com.au

SHARE THE LOVE: If you enjoy The Echidna, forward it to a friend so they can sign up, too.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT:

- A snap assessment of Australia's grocery supply chains will investigate how the Middle East war is impacting the way food is grown and transported around the nation.

- Australia's share market has fallen sharply, after Iran responded to a US ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with threats to attack its gulf neighbours' water and energy infrastructure.

- A category five inflation storm is bearing down on Australian consumers. As war in the Middle East continues to roil global energy markets, the impact is already being felt domestically.

THEY SAID IT: "Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

YOU SAID IT: The most vulnerable voiceless victims in war are the pets separated from their owners.

"The animals break me too," writes Lucy. "During our Black Summer I had a small envelope of documents for the family to evacuate with (birth certificates, passports, some kid artwork) but an enormous pile of supplies and strategy for the dog and chickens. I had more of a plan about how I was going to secure the favourite chooks in boxes and evacuate with them than I did for myself. The thought of leaving any of them behind was and still is completely devastating."

Graeme writes: "Only thinking this morning of other completely helpless members of the biosphere, who have absolutely no say, along with many of our lot, with war."

"Having read this morning's offering from the burrow, I found my eyes strangely damp, and had to go out to my pigeon loft to talk to the birds and digest it," writes Murray. "Some will disagree with me, but the fact is that in a war it's not just the innocent, the children, who suffer. So many animals are collateral damage. This is another reason why when one country attacks another and starts a war, the powerful countries of the world should stamp it out."

Jennifer asks: "And do we even consider the impact on the native bird and animal population while we humans are waging war?"

"Ernesto's Sanctuary for cats in Syria started during the civil war," writes Ruby. "The help needed never goes away even after the fighting stops. They now have 2800 plus other animals, many bearing the scars of conflict and forced abandonment. It's a part of war that hurts so much."

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