Varcoe: Sharp spike in oil prices rewrites Alberta economic outlook |
Will a rapid rise in oil prices this week recalibrate the outlook for the province’s energy-powered economy?
That’s the tricky issue experts are striving to figure out, as oil prices have surged more than 35 per cent since the beginning of March with the escalating war in the Middle East.
Benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at US$90.90 a barrel on Friday, up almost $10 from Thursday.
It’s a sharp upturn since New Year’s Day, when crude prices were sloshing around $57 a barrel and the growth outlook for the provincial economy was relatively modest.
Your weekday lunchtime roundup of curated links, news highlights, analysis and features.
There was an error, please provide a valid email address.
By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.
A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.
The next issue of Noon News Roundup will soon be in your inbox.
We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again
Interested in more newsletters? Browse here.
“We have entered scenario-land. You can’t be definitive, but you can start thinking through scenarios,” said ATB chief economist Mark Parsons, who detailed three possible outlooks on Friday for Alberta’s economy this year.
“We were going to release a March forecast very soon, and we’re kind of going back to the drawing board . . . We’ve got to factor in Iran and what it means for oil prices, what it means for oil and gas investment.”
In early December, ATB projected the Alberta economy would grow by 2.1 per cent and WTI crude prices would average $61 a barrel — similar to last week’s provincial budget’s that was based on oil at $60.50 a barrel.
In a report Friday, ATB noted energy accounted for about three-quarters of Alberta’s international export of goods last year, and 28 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP).
Parsons laid out three possible scenarios, with one featuring an oil supply shock and limited global economic impact,........