In an age defined by geopolitical upheaval, economic fragility, and a desperate global quest for energy security, the partnership between Pakistan and the European Union is being tested through contesting lenses. The foundations of this relationship, carefully laid in the Strategic Engagement Plan (SEP) of 2019, were designed for a more predictable world. Today, they must withstand the pressures of a world in flux.

The war in Ukraine, the ensuing energy crisis, and global inflationary trends have created a challenging international environment. While Pakistan’s own economic vulnerabilities are pronounced, it is struggling to strike a delicate balance with geographic compulsions and colocation with the world’s busiest Strait of Hormuz, and neighbours including China, India, Iran, and Afghanistan. This necessitates provision of a critical framework for understanding the way forward, illustrating how the EU’s past experiences can inform its future strategy with Pakistan vis-à-vis Pakistan’s expectations, compulsions and aspirations.

The SEP was a diplomatic achievement, signaling a mutual desire to move beyond a transactional relationship. It established a multi-tiered dialogue covering everything from security and trade to climate change and education. Analysts note that such an institutional frameworks “mirror successful EU engagement models with other regional partners,” creating a “comprehensive institutional framework for bilateral relations” that provides stability amid political transitions. This has been vital for Pakistan, demonstrating international acceptability and providing a steady partnership channel despite its internal political volatility. However, the “highly volatile global economic and energy environment” has starkly exposed the limitations of this framework, pushing both sides to adapt their theoretical cooperation to harsh yet evolving new realities.

The economic lifeline and its strings

At the heart of the economic relationship is the GSP status, extended until 2027. This trade arrangement has been a lifeline for Pakistan, making the EU its largest export destination and a critical source of foreign exchange at a time of severe economic stress. However, this dependency is a double-edged sword.

As quite accurately observed by Rados?aw Fiedler, a professor of international relations such economic partnerships while “a stabilizing factor” also “create........

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