Two bunch of people would have started this week with long faces.
One, swing traders with long Brent positions itching to make a quick buck from all the tension in the Middle East — especially since Iran picked the most combustible moment in recent history to mark its first direct response to Israel’s shenanigans in Syria – only to find that this, of all events, was the buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact variety.
Oil futures dropped on Monday because Tehran had already telegraphed its intentions, even made phone calls to important capitals, so the market had priced in the geopolitical risk premium ahead of the weekend. Besides, this particular Israeli strike in Damascus was different. It targeted the Iranian embassy, effectively Iranian soil, and killed a number of very senior national guard generals. And there’s already a very strong precedent of Iran not exactly holding back when its elite commanders are gunned down. Remember the barrage of missiles it launched at US bases in Iraq, causing dozens of “brain concussion injuries” to soldiers, after Donald Trump ordered the killing of General Soleimani in Iraq in January 2020?
So, the writing was on the wall.
And two, the hawks that surround Benjamin........