No doubt, macroeconomic indicators are improving. The current account is stable, with a surplus expected in FY25. Inflation has fallen to single digits, and food inflation is under 5 percent. Fiscal discipline is evident—FY24 marked the first primary surplus since FY04, with another projected for FY25. These are hard facts, free from any number-fudging.
Yet, the grim reality is that GDP growth is alarmingly low. As a percentage of GDP, private sector credit has plummeted to its lowest level since the privatization of banks — down to 10 percent from a peak of 23 percent in FY07. The World Bank forecasts a mere 2.8 percent GDP growth for FY25, placing the three-year rolling growth average at 1.7 percent, the lowest since 1953. These are also undeniable facts.
The narrative that improving macro indicators equates to economic revival is misleading. Pakistan’s economy cycles through highs and lows. In FY22, high........