The number of checks rejected due to insufficient funds in the first two months of 2026 reached levels similar to those seen during the Covid-19 pandemic, warns a report by the credit risk analysis center Fidelitas.

The study shows that in December the number of rejected checks reached 97,612, a record high. In January the figure was 89,352 and in February 86,350, numbers well above the historical average.

According to the report, these figures “even exceed the pandemic levels of 2020.”

The study adds that “the ratio of issued to rejected checks is growing astronomically, as paper checks are becoming a less common payment method over time, but remain very prevalent among SMEs (Small and Medium-sized Enterprises).”

“Measured in dollars, the economic impact is equally significant and concerning. In December 2025, the amount rejected totaled US$198.8 million; in January and February 2026, the figures were US$175.7 million and US$172.8 million, respectively,” the report states. 

Fidelitas warns that “the persistence of these levels in the first months of 2026 suggests that the pressure on companies’ working capital remains high.”

“While the average had remained below US$30 million per month, in the last quarter it increased sixfold, exceeding US$180 million,” it added. 

Business defaults: critical sectors 

The study details that the percentage of businesses defaulting (i.e. not paying) on loans is between 2.5% and 2.7% on average per month. However, it should be noted that large companies account for 42% of financing. 

If only SMEs are considered, loan repayment delays have risen to 4.4%. 

According to a report by the Economic Studies Center of Banco Provincia, the irregular repayment of their loan portfolio has jumped from 1.5% of the total at the end of 2024 to 5.5% at the end of 2025. 

While defaults exceed 9% of total loans to households, 2.5% of the corporate loan portfolio is in default. 

As reported by Ámbito, in January 2026, one in eight companies that took out a loan was in default (12.5%), but payment irregularity reached 10% in 75% of the smallest loans (those up to $45 million).

Risk of Supply Chain Disruption 

According to Fidelitas, default rates in the milling sector have reached 43.3%; in leather, 40.7%; in furniture, 7.9%; in apparel, 7.7%; and in construction, 6.1%. 

“These levels are not solely a problem of individual solvency. The SMEs in these sectors are, for the most part, suppliers of inputs or subcontractors for large industrial companies,” the report states. 

It also warns that “when a key supplier in the chain fails — whether due to bankruptcy, operational disruption, or inability to deliver orders — the impact ripples upstream, causing production delays, stockouts, and operational disruptions in larger companies.” 

“This is a supply chain risk that transcends the Argentine context and is consistent with the dynamics observed in other emerging economies under pressure,” the report concludes.

This story was originally published in Ámbito

© Buenos Aires Herald