The budget fallout has Angus Taylor back in contention. But there’s something askew about this battle |
The budget fallout has Angus Taylor back in contention. But there’s something askew about this battle
May 22, 2026 — 5:00am
You have reached your maximum number of saved items.
Remove items from your saved list to add more.
At first blush, the great post-budget showdown of 2026 looks like a return to the traditional arrangements of Australian politics. In the red corner, Labor targeting investors’ tax breaks on the grounds of equity; in the blue corner, the Coalition fighting for its investor-class constituents on the grounds the budget will kill aspiration, and with it, the economy. Labor’s centrepiece will raise taxes; the Coalition promises perpetual yearly tax cuts. Redistribution versus production. Let’s get ready to rumble.
But beneath the surface, the contest is not nearly so neat because today’s politics is not nearly so traditional. As we entered this budget, Labor stood alone in the political centre, charting a cautious path to becoming the natural party of government. The Coalition stood in the trenches of a war for the conservative flank, against One Nation. That is, the Coalition had split from its urban, aspirational base, and in two-party terms, Labor had mopped them up. Only the teals, who now own the wealthiest traditionally Liberal seats, complicate this picture. But it’s telling that their positions tend more often to align with Labor’s than with the Coalition’s.
That context hasn’t simply disappeared now that Labor has delivered the most disruptive, controversial budget since at least Abbott’s 2014 offering. And it’s shaping the post-budget fallout in intriguing ways that make it difficult to pick the winner. This isn’t actually a straightforward fight between redistribution and aspiration. Labor’s political centrism means it still has an aspirational argument to make. And the Coalition’s........