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Hawthorn are on the cusp of premiership contention, but Carlton and Collingwood will need to produce major defensive transformations if they are to challenge the Brisbane Lions for the flag next season.

A deep-dive analysis by Champion Data following the AFL trade period has dissected the key statistics of the past 22 premiers, providing a guide for teams planning to be in the so-called premiership window in 2025.

Premiership teams typically are ranked top four in two key metrics: points for and points against, with the latter more important. Twenty of the past 22 premiership teams have been top four for defence; only the Hawks of 2014 and 2015 were outside the top four for points conceded, and they were fifth in this category. That the Hawks were the league’s best scoring side through each of those years meant they could afford to give a little at the other end of the ground.

That’s what we are playing for: The Brisbane Lions encapsulated the ideal premiership blueprint this year.Credit: Getty Images

But one hidden gem of a statistic common to premiership teams, which is often overlooked by supporters, is scores from turnover differential. Again, 20 of the past 22 premiers have been top four for scores from turnover differential. This statistic measures how a team makes opponents pay for their mistakes (when they turn over the ball).

List demographics are also critical in determining which teams are in the premiership window.

“Every club would run every club’s list demographics, position and rate them, age, ability, position,” said one list manager, speaking anonymously to talk about other clubs.

“It gives you a decent guide, but there are always other things that have a great effect.”

The Brisbane Lions, still celebrating their premiership success, ticked all three statistical boxes in 2024. They were top three for points for, points against and scores from turnovers. Their beaten grand final opponent Sydney, while No.1 for scoring and scoring from turnovers, were only sixth for points against. On the biggest day on the football calendar, that latter statistic was exposed when the Lions filled their boots.

The Lions may be favoured by the bookies to go back to back, but there’s a major caveat here. Joe Daniher’s retirement will hurt. The enigmatic star not only delivered 58 goals, his presence opened up opportunities for teammates inside attacking 50. His ability to go into the ruck, which then forced opposition defences to adjust to a smaller set up with Eric Hipwood the key tall, was also beneficial for the Lions. Just how coach Chris Fagan shifts the magnets now – Logan Morris could be the second tall – will shape the Lions’ destiny.

Three-time Lions premiership great Alastair Lynch said there was no reason to think the Lions will drop from contention, particularly with star father-son prospect Levi Ashcroft set to join. He said how the Lions replace Daniher will be........

© Brisbane Times