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How to make money during a recession

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Ever since the Great Recession ended in June 2009, investors have been treated to a stream of forecasts warning that another slump is right around the corner. As we have seen, none of these predictions have come to pass. Smart investors paid little heed to predictions that were subjective and of little value.

There is money to be made when a recession hits.Credit:AP

Enter Campbell R. Harvey. He's a finance professor at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business. He also is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, which among other things provides the official start and end dates of expansions and contractions. Most important of all, he maintains one of the more rigorous models for analyzing the potential for a future economic contraction.

Harvey is not an alarmist; to the contrary, he is a sober-minded researcher. In a recent YouTube discussion of the warning signs of an impending recession, he cited four signals. One is the Duke-CFO Global Business Outlook survey, which this month found that more than two-thirds of corporate chief financial officers expect that a recession will be underway by the end of 2020. His second factor is "the realization of anti-growth........

© Brisbane Times