UK house prices were widely expected to fall heavily last year, courtesy of a two-year, 14-step interest-rate hiking cycle from the Bank of England. The pessimism turned out to be overdone — and this year looks likely to repeat the performance, with the housing market proving more resilient than predicted by most forecasters.

House values fell a modest 1.8% in 2023, according to the most widely recognized average price measure, from the lender Nationwide Building Society. The Halifax house index, provided by a unit of Lloyds Banking Group Plc, calculates that prices rose 1.7%. Home prices are down by around 4.5% from their September 2022 peak, but this follows a 25% boom during the pandemic, when fiscal stimulus propelled the market. Is this a crisis delayed or averted? It's more likely to be the latter in my view, with prices set to recover modestly. I was somewhat lonely last year in expecting only a small correction, so it’s nice to have some company with Pantheon Macroeconomics also expecting a gentle rise in 2024.