We just learned that the US trade deficit with China is the narrowest in more than 13 years at $279.4 billion. This must be proof that the tariffs put in place by former President Donald Trump are working, right? Not so fast. Of the three measures by which America could reasonably claim success in the ongoing trade war with China, Trump’s tariffs are falling short on all of them.

First, victory could be defined as a lasting decrease in the demand for imports relative to domestic produced goods, leading to a narrower overall trade deficit. And yet, the total shortfall in US trade has widened from $479 billion to $779 billion since Trump’s 25% tariffs on Chinese goods went into effect.1