The data on carbon emissions in 2023 is only just in, but we can already predict where things will go this year.

Global greenhouse pollution hit a new record and increased 1.1% last year, the International Energy Agency reported last week. That was almost entirely a China story. Had the country held its carbon budget steady — or reduced it, in the manner of fellow high-income countries whose pollution is now at a 50-year low — then the world’s climate footprint would have shrunk by about 155 million metric tons, instead of growing by 410 million tons.