Nearly every pollster and brokerage analyst has already called India’s upcoming general election in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s favor. But if a third term for the strongman leader is already assured, why’s he seemingly so nervous?

On Thursday, the Enforcement Directorate, a federal investigative agency, arrested Arvind Kejriwal, the chief minister of Delhi state, for alleged bribery in awarding liquor licenses in the national capital in 2021. The move, which comes less than a month before polling gets underway across the country, has raised eyebrows. Mamata Banerjee, an influential opposition leader and the chief minister of West Bengal, described the arrest as “a blatant assault on democracy.”