In the shadows of Myanmar’s prolonged civil war, a quiet but profound shift has taken place in Rakhine State – one that may hold the key to solving one of the most protracted refugee crises in the world. As traditional diplomatic avenues have collapsed and global attention wanes, a new and surprising actor has emerged at the center of repatriation prospects for the Rohingya: the Arakan Army.

For years, the Rohingya – a persecuted Muslim minority driven out of their homeland in waves of violent purges, most notably in 2017 – have lived in a state of limbo. Nearly one million remain in refugee camps across the border in Bangladesh, where hope is in dwindling supply and the living conditions worsen by the day. The global community, while vocal in condemnation of their suffering, has been largely impotent in creating viable solutions. Now, with Myanmar’s military junta losing ground, and the central opposition National Unity Government (NUG) lacking effective control over the country’s peripheries, a different kind of power has filled the vacuum in Rakhine – and it may be the only actor with the capacity to allow the Rohingya to return.

The Arakan Army (AA), once viewed as a militant insurgency representing the Rakhine Buddhist ethnic group, has transformed into a de facto government controlling the majority of Rakhine State’s territory. With administrative structures, security forces, and a growing ability to implement civil governance, the AA now holds sway over 11 of Rakhine’s 18 townships. This transformation is not just tactical; it’s political. And therein lies the window of opportunity.

To the outside........

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